Friday MLB Sharp Report

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For an in depth breakdown of Friday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET and then I'll be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of MLB games receiving sharp action today...

 

7:20 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (77-43) at Atlanta Braves (73-47)

Could we be looking at a possible World Series matchup here? The Astros are +400 to win the Fall Classic and the Braves are +1200, the 2nd and 5th best odds, respectively. Houston just split a four-game series on the road against the White Sox while the Braves just took three of four at home against the Mets. In tonight's Interleague series opener, Houston taps righty Lance McCullers (1-0, 0.00 ERA) and Atlanta goes with righty Kyle Wright (14-5, 3.14 ERA). This line opened with the Braves listed as a -130 home favorite and the Astros a +120 road dog. Sharps have jumped on Houston getting plus money, dropping the Astros from +120 to +110. Essentially, smart Houston money is moving this game closer to a pick'em. Both teams are hitting roughly .250. The difference comes on the mound, with the Astros sporting a team 3.05 ERA compared to 3.61 for the Braves. Pro money also seems to be banking on a lower scoring game, as the total is 8.5 with the under juiced to -115. When the total is 8.5 or higher in a non-division game, the under is 280-232 (55%) this season. The forecast calls for mid 70s with 5 MPH winds blowing in from center. Houston is 69-44 to the under this season, the best under team in baseball. 

 

9:40 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners (65-54) at Oakland Athletics (43-76)

The Mariners just swept the Angels on the road and currently hold down the top Wild Card spot in the American League. Meanwhile, the Athletics just split a four-game set on the road at the Rangers but are well out of playoff contention, owning the worst record in the AL. In tonight's AL West series opener, Seattle hands the ball to lefty Marco Gonzales (7-12, 4.18 ERA) and Oakland counters with fellow southpaw Cole Irvin (6-10, 3.13 ERA). This line opened with the Mariners listed as a -125 road favorite and the Athletics a +115 home dog. Sharps have pounced on Seattle laying the short chalk, steaming the Mariners up from -125 to -135. Road favorites are 396-263 (60%) this season. Favorites who just had the day off against teams who played the previous day are 266-168 (61%) since 2018. Seattle matches that "rest vs tired" system today. The Mariners also have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7). Seattle is 34-15 as a favorite and 34-28 on the road. Oakland is 37-64 as a dog and 17-38 at home. Seattle the season series 7-3. 

 

9:40 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (66-51) at Arizona Diamondbacks (55-63)

The Cardinals just swept the Rockies at home and are now 13-3 over their last 16 games. St. Louis currently leads the NL Central by three games over the Brewers. On the flip side, the Diamondbacks just split a four game series on the road at the Giants. Arizona trails the final Wild Card spot by 9.5 games. In tonight's series opener, St. Louis starts righty Miles Mikolas (9-9, 3.44 ERA) and Arizona sends out lefty Tommy Henry (2-1, 4.15 ERA). This line opened with the Cardinals listed as a -165 road favorite and the Diamondbacks a +150 home dog. Sharps are riding the red-hot Cardinals, steaming St. Louis up from -165 to -175. Non-division road favorites are 210-136 (61%) this season. Favorites who made the playoffs the previous season against teams who did not are 449-254 (64%). St. Louis is 43-18 as a favorite and 17-9 against lefties. Arizona is 35-49 as a dog and 38-49 against righties. The Cardinals hold a big edge at the plate, hitting .255 compared to .229 for the Snakes. 

 

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