Friday MLB Sharp Report

phillies

For an updated breakdown of Friday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then I'll be co-hosting Betting Across America with Ben WIlson from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where smart money is leaning for a trio of MLB games tonight...

 

7:20 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (43-25) at Atlanta Braves (41-30)

Both of these NL pennant hopefuls are playing well as of late, The Dodgers are 6-2 over their last 8 games and just swept the Reds on the road. Meanwhile, the Braves are 4-1 over their last five games and just took three of four at home against the Giants. In tonight's series opener, Los Angeles taps lefty Julio Urias (4-6, 2.56 ERA) while Atlanta counters with righty Ian Anderson (6-3, 4.35 ERA). This line opened with the Dodgers listed as a short -120 road favorite and the Braves a +110 home dog. Pros have pounced on Los Angeles at the short chalk price, steaming the Dodgers up from -120 to -130. Non-division road favorites are 133-71 (65%) this season. Los Angeles is 42-25 as a favorite, 23-13 on the road and 29-17 against righties. The Dodgers lead the season series 2-1. Los Angeles is +129 in run differential. Atlanta is +47. 

 

8:05 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals (25-47) at Texas Rangers (33-35)

These Interleague foes are trending in opposite directions. The Nationals are just 2-9 over their last 11 games. On the flip side, the Rangers are 7-4 over their last 11 games. In tonight's series opener, Washington hands the ball to Paolo Espino (0-1, 2.29 ERA) and Texas starts fellow righty Dane Dunning (1-5, 4.38 ERA). This line opened with Texas listed as a -150 home favorite and Washington a +135 road dog. Sharps have hammered the Rangers, driving Texas up from -150 to -175. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 58-29 (67%) this season. The Nats are in a "fade" spot, as they're 20-43 as a dog, 13-21 on the road and just 15-32 against righties. The Rangers' biggest advantage comes on the mound (team ERA 3.97 compared to the Nats' 5.26). Texas is +5 in run differential. Washington is -113. 

 

9:40 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (37-34) at San Diego Padres (44-28)

The Phillies took last night's series opener 6-2, cashing as +135 road dogs. In tonight's rematch, Philadelphia starts ace righty Aaron Nola (4-4, 3.11 ERA) and San Diego turns to rookie lefty Mackenzie Gore (4-3, 3.64 ERA). This line opened with the Phillies listed as a short -120 road favorite and the Padres a +110 home dog. Pros have laid the chalk with Philadelphia, steaming the Phillies up from -120 to -130. Non-division road favorites are 133-71 (65%) this season. Philadelphia also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7). The Phillies are 13-9 against lefties this year (compared to 23-25 against righties). Philadelphia is 5-0 in Nola's last five starts.

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