Friday MLB Sharp Report

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For an updated breakdown of Friday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then I'll be co-hosting Betting Across America with Ben WIlson from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where smart money is leaning for a trio of MLB games tonight...

 

7:20 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (43-25) at Atlanta Braves (41-30)

Both of these NL pennant hopefuls are playing well as of late, The Dodgers are 6-2 over their last 8 games and just swept the Reds on the road. Meanwhile, the Braves are 4-1 over their last five games and just took three of four at home against the Giants. In tonight's series opener, Los Angeles taps lefty Julio Urias (4-6, 2.56 ERA) while Atlanta counters with righty Ian Anderson (6-3, 4.35 ERA). This line opened with the Dodgers listed as a short -120 road favorite and the Braves a +110 home dog. Pros have pounced on Los Angeles at the short chalk price, steaming the Dodgers up from -120 to -130. Non-division road favorites are 133-71 (65%) this season. Los Angeles is 42-25 as a favorite, 23-13 on the road and 29-17 against righties. The Dodgers lead the season series 2-1. Los Angeles is +129 in run differential. Atlanta is +47. 

 

8:05 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals (25-47) at Texas Rangers (33-35)

These Interleague foes are trending in opposite directions. The Nationals are just 2-9 over their last 11 games. On the flip side, the Rangers are 7-4 over their last 11 games. In tonight's series opener, Washington hands the ball to Paolo Espino (0-1, 2.29 ERA) and Texas starts fellow righty Dane Dunning (1-5, 4.38 ERA). This line opened with Texas listed as a -150 home favorite and Washington a +135 road dog. Sharps have hammered the Rangers, driving Texas up from -150 to -175. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 58-29 (67%) this season. The Nats are in a "fade" spot, as they're 20-43 as a dog, 13-21 on the road and just 15-32 against righties. The Rangers' biggest advantage comes on the mound (team ERA 3.97 compared to the Nats' 5.26). Texas is +5 in run differential. Washington is -113. 

 

9:40 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (37-34) at San Diego Padres (44-28)

The Phillies took last night's series opener 6-2, cashing as +135 road dogs. In tonight's rematch, Philadelphia starts ace righty Aaron Nola (4-4, 3.11 ERA) and San Diego turns to rookie lefty Mackenzie Gore (4-3, 3.64 ERA). This line opened with the Phillies listed as a short -120 road favorite and the Padres a +110 home dog. Pros have laid the chalk with Philadelphia, steaming the Phillies up from -120 to -130. Non-division road favorites are 133-71 (65%) this season. Philadelphia also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7). The Phillies are 13-9 against lefties this year (compared to 23-25 against righties). Philadelphia is 5-0 in Nola's last five starts.

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