Friday MLB Sharp Report


For an updated breakdown of Friday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET and then I'll be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of MLB games today receiving sharp action from respected bettors...


6:40 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (50-44) at Cincinnati Reds (34-57)

These NL Central rivals are at opposite ends of the standings. The Cardinals trail the first place Brewers by just a half game in the division. Meanwhile, the Reds sit in last place and own the third-worst record in MLB. In tonight's series opener, St. Louis hands the ball the veteran righty Adam Wainwright (6-7, 3.00 ERA) and Cincinnati counters with fellow righty Graham Ashcraft (4-2, 4.45 ERA). This line opened with the Cardinals listed as a -135 road favorite and the Reds a +125 home dog. Pros have laid the chalk with St. Louis, steaming the Cardinals up from -135 to -145. Road favorites are 304-195 (61%) this season. Favorites who made the playoffs the previous season against teams who did not are 353-192 (65%). The Cardinals lead the season series 6-2 against the Reds. St. Louis is 30-14 as a favorite and 40-35 against righties. Cincinnati is 27-44 as a dog and 25-40 against righties. 


8:20 p.m. ET: Colorado Rockies (43-50) at Milwaukee Brewers (50-43)

The Rockies are still in the playoff hunt, trailing the final NL Wild Card spot by 6.5 games. The Brewers, on the other hand, are trying to fend off the Cardinals in NL Central, who trail Milwaukee by just a half game. In tonight's series opener, Colorado starts righty Antonio Senzatela (3-5, 4.95 ERA) and Milwaukee sends out ace righty Corbin Burnes (7-4, 2.14 ERA). This line opened with the Brewers listed as a hefty -230 home favorite and the Rockies a +210 road dog. Pros aren't scared off by the expensive chalk and have steamed Milwaukee up from -230 to -250. Home favorites -200 or more are 141-57 (71%) this season. The Brewers also have correlative betting value as a big favorite in a low total game (7.5). The Rockies are 29-41 as a dog, 15-27 on the road and 24-32 against righties. The Brewers are 9-3 in Burnes' last 12 starts. Burnes is currently 700 to win the NL Cy Young, trailing only Sandy Alcantara (-130).


9:40 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers (42-49) at Oakland Athletics (33-62)

Both of these AL West rivals played yesterday. The Rangers took down the Marlins 8-0, cruising as 115 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Athletics split a doubleheader against the Tigers, losing the first game 7-2 as 125 dogs but then winning the nightcap 5-0 as -175 home favorites. In tonight's series opener, the Rangers send out righty Spencer Howard (1-1, 6.97 ERA) and the Athletics counter with lefty Cole Irvin (4-7, 3.21 ERA). This line opened with Oakland listed as a short -115 home favorite and Texas a +105 road dog. Sharps have pounced on Texas getting plus money, steaming the Rangers from +105 to -115. Essentially, smart money has flipped the Rangers from a dog to a favorite. Texas holds a big edge at the plate, hitting .239 compared to .211 for Oakland. The Rangers lead the season series 7-3. Texas is +7 in run differential. Oakland is -118. The Athletics are 27-52 as a dog, 22-43 against righties and just 12-33 at home.

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