Friday MLB Sharp Report

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For an updated breakdown of Friday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of MLB games receiving sharp action today...

 

2:20 p.m. ET: New York Mets (56-34) at Chicago Cubs (34-55)

The Mets cruised to an 8-0 victory in last night's series opener, easily cashing as -135 road favorites. In this afternoon's rematch, New York hands the ball to righty Taijuan Walker (7-2, 2.63 ERA) and Chicago counters with fellow righty Marcus Stroman (2-5, 4.91 ERA). This line opened with the Mets listed as a -130 road favorite and the Cubs a +120 home dog. Pros have pounced on New York at the modest chalk price, steaming the Mets up from -130 to -140. Non-division road favorites are 158-97 (62%) this season. The Mets are 42-19 as a favorite, 28-19 on the road and 37-20 against righties. The Cubs are just 24-37 as a dog, 17-30 at home and 25-39 against righties. The Mets hold the edge at both the plate, hitting .254 compared to .245 for the Cubs, and on the mound (team ERA 3.69 vs 4.70). New York is +82 in run differential. Chicago is -85. Walker has a 2.08 ERA in two July starts. 

 

6:40 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (46-43) at Miami Marlins (43-45)

This NL East showdown features two teams separated by just 3.5-games in the division standings. The Phillies have have lost four straight and just got swept by the Blue Jays on the road. Meanwhile, the Marlins just split a four-game series at home against the Pirates. In tonight's series opener, Philadelphia starts righty Kyle Gibson (4-3, 4.53 ERA) and Miami sends out ace righty Sandy Alcantara (9-3, 1.73 ERA). This line opened with the Marlins listed as a -145 home favorite and the Phillies a +130 road dog. Sharps have hammered Miami with their ace on the bump, steaming the Fish up from -145 to -165. Miami has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7). The Marlins are 24-13 as a favorite. Philadelphia is 15-19 as a dog. Miami is 10-2 in Alcantara's last 12 starts. Alcantara is the favorite to win the NL Cy Young at -110. The Marlins lead the season series with the Phillies 4-3.

 

10:15 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (50-40) at San Francisco Giants (45-43)

The Brewers edged the Giants 3-2 in last night's series opener, cashing as short -108 road favorites. In tonight's rematch, Milwaukee taps righty Brandon Woodruff (7-3, 4.01 ERA) and San Francisco starts lefty Alex Wood (6-7, 4.43 ERA). This line opened with the Brewers listed as a short -115 road favorite and the Giants a +105 home dog. Pros have jumped on the short chalk, steaming Milwaukee up from -115 to -125. Non-division road favorites are 158-97 (62%) this season. The Brewers also have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7). Milwaukee is 39-20 as a favorite and 29-21 on the road. The Brewers are 8-3 in Woodruff's last 11 starts. Woodruff has a 2.20 ERA in two July starts. 

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

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PRO TIPS

The Greg Peterson Experience: In NBA and college hoops, place more value on teams that emphasize low post defense. It travels much better than shooting. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Jason Weingarten: Rams +6 vs. Raiders. View more picks

Josh Appelbaum: Army/Navy Under 33 (-110). View more picks

 

 

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