Friday MLB Sharp Report (9-3)

September 3, 2021 01:25 AM

Happy Fade the Public Friday! Let's discuss a trio of key Friday night MLB games receiving notable action...

7:07 p.m. ET: Oakland Athletics (74-60) at Toronto Blue Jays (70-62)

This non-division matchup features a pair of American League teams fighting for postseason berths. The Athletics trail the Red Sox by 2-games for the second Wild Card spot. The Blue Jays are very much alive as well, trailing Boston by 5-games. In tonight's series opener, Oakland hands the ball to lefty Sean Manaea (8-9, 3.97 ERA) and Toronto counters with righty Alek Manoah (5-2, 3.15 ERA). This line opened with the Blue Jays listed as a -132 home favorite and the Athletics a + 122 road dog. The public sees two evenly matched teams and doesn't know who to back. But pros have leaned on the Blue Jays at home, steaming Toronto up from -132 to -150. Non-division home favorites are 429-268 (61.5%) this season. If they're in the "sweet spot" between -150 and -175 they improve to 91-54 (62.8%). This is also a "schedule spot" edge for Toronto, who had the day off while Oakland played at Detroit (and won 8-6). Rested favorites off a day off against teams on a back-to-back are 63-37 (63%). Toronto is 48-38 as a favorite. Oakland is 18-24 as a dog. Toronto will lean on their bats in this one. The Jays are hitting .262, which ranks 2nd-best in MLB. Oakland is hitting .237, which ranks 22nd.

7:10 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers (63-72) at Cincinnati Reds (72-63)

These Interleague foes are both looking to get back on track. Detroit just dropped two of three against Oakland and is now 1-5 over their last six games. Meanwhile, Cincinnati just lost two of three against St. Louis to fall to 1-4 of their last five. In tonight's series opener, the Tigers hand the ball to lefty Tyler Alexander (2-2, 4.34 ERA) and the Reds rebuttal with righty Vladimir Gutierrez (9-5, 4.03 ERA). This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a -170 home favorite and Detroit a + 155 road dog. Wiseguys have laid the minus number with the Reds, steaming Cincinnati up from -170 to -180. Big home favorites -150 or more coming off a day off are 57-34 (62.6%) this season. Cincinnati also has value as a non-division favorite off a day off against a team who played the previous day. This "schedule spot" advantage is 38-18 (67.9%) this season. The Reds are 37-31 at home. The Tigers are 28-37 on the road. Cincinnati is 44-31 as a favorite and 17-13 against lefties. Detroit is 50-64 as a dog and 38-51 against righties.

8:10 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (68-64) at Milwaukee Brewers (82-53)

The Cardinals enter this series 12.5-games back of the first place Brewers in the NL Central. In tonight's series opener, St. Louis starts veteran righty Adam Wainwright (13-7, 2.97 ERA) and Milwaukee sends out righty Freddy Peralta (9-3, 2.45 ERA). This line opened with the Brewers listed as a -163 home favorite and the Cardinals a + 153 road dog. Sharps aren't scared off by the chalk and have pounced on Milwaukee, steaming the Brewers up from -163 to -175. Favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 349-221 (61.2%) this season. Milwaukee also has value as a favorite with a low total (7.5). The fewer amount of expected runs scored, the more likely they come from the better team. The Brewers are 63-40 as a favorite. The Cardinals are 27-36 as a dog. Milwaukee is 36-29 at home. St. Louis is 33-34 on the road. We could also be looking at a lower scoring game. The total is 7.5 with the under juiced to -115.

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

back to news

Live On Air

Streaming Now: A Numbers Game

play Watch Live radio Listen Live


Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.


Jason Weingarten: Pittsburgh Pirates OVER 67.5 Regular Season Wins. View more picks.


The Greg Peterson Experience: Do not overreact or underreact to 1 or 2 days of MLB results. It is a 162-game regular season. View more tips.