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Friday MLB Sharp Report (8-6)

August 6, 2021 03:45 AM

Happy Fade the Public Friday. Today we have a loaded MLB slate on tap, with 15-games to choose from. For an updated breakdown of Friday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:45 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pirtchard from 3 to 5 p.m .ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for a trio of Friday night MLB matchups...

8:40 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins (47-62) at Colorado Rockies (48-61)

Both of these opponents are at the bottom of their respective divisions. The Marlins are in last place in the NL East, 9.5-games behind the Mets. Meanwhile, the Rockies are in 4th place in the NL West, 21-games behind the Giants. In tonight's series opener, Miami sends out righty Sandy Alcantara (6-9, 3.12 ERA) and Colorado counters with fellow righty German Marquez (9-8, 3.51 ERA). This line opened with the Rockies listed as a -140 home favorite and the Marlins a + 130 road dog. The public sees two teams with nearly identical records and doesn't know who to back. But pros are leaning on the Rockies as we've seen Colorado get steamed up from -140 to -150. Non-division home favorites are 352-221 (61.4%) this season, winning roughly + 16 units. Sweet spot non-division home favorites (-150 to -170) are 80-41 (66.1%). The Rockies are 16-7 as a favorite. The Marlins are 29-45 as a dog. The Rockies are hitting .246, which ranks 9th-best in MLB. The Marlins are hitting .234, which ranks 21st. The Marlins are 20-35 on the road this season. The Rockies are 35-21 at home. Wiseguys also seem to be leaning under. The total has fallen from 10 to 9.5. The forecast calls for mid 80s with 7-10 MPH winds blowing in at Coors Field. 

9:40 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers (39-70) at Oakland Athletics (61-48)

These division rivals are trending in opposite directions. The last-place Rangers just dropped three of four to the Angels. On the other hand, the Athletics are 5-2 over their last seven games and just 4-games back of first place Houston. In tonight's series opener, the Rangers hand the ball to righty Mike Foltynewicz (2-10, 6.00 ERA) and the Athletics rebuttal with follow righty Chris Bassitt (11-3, 3.28 ERA). This line opened with Oakland listed as a hefty -210 home favorite and Texas a + 190 road dog. Pros aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're backing the better team at home with the superior starting pitcher, steaming the A's up from -210 to -260. Oakland is in a "rest vs tired" advantage spot. Favorites coming off a day off against teams who played the previous day are 48-28 (63.2%) this season. Big favorites -200 or more coming off a win are 86-34 (71.7%). The A's are 45-29 as a favorite. The Rangers are 30-58 as a dog. Oakland is 31-25 at home. Texas is 13-40 on the road, tied with the Rockies for the worst road record in MLB. 

10:10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels (55-54) at Los Angeles Dodgers (65-44)

This is the opening game of a three-game Freeway series set. The Angels start lefty Patrick Sandoval (3-5, 3.38 ERA) and the Dodgers trot out fellow southpaw David Price (4-1, 3.55 ERA). This line opened with the Dodgers listed as a -180 home favorite and the Angeles a + 165 road dog. Wiseguys have pounced on the Dodgers, steaming the home team from -180 to -200. Non-division home teams with steam 10-cents or more are 192-118 (61.9%) this season, winning roughly + 24 units. Interleague home teams with a line move in their favor are 87-55 (58.6%). The Dodgers also enjoy a rest advantage spot. Non-division favorites coming off a day off vs teams who played the previous day are 29-10 (74.4%). The Dodgers are 65-41 as a favorite. The Angels are 23-28 as a dog. The Dodgers are 34-19 at home. The Angels are 25-28 on the road. 

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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