Friday MLB Sharp Report (8-13)

August 13, 2021 12:28 AM

Happy Fade the Public Friday. Today we have a loaded betting menu on tap, featuring 14 MLB games and three NFL Preseason games. For an updated breakdown of Friday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 5 p.m .ET. I'll also check in with Danny Burke on Rush Hour at 7 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for a trio of Friday night MLB matchups.

7:05 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds (62-54) at Philadelphia Phillies (60-55)

Both of these playoffs contenders are looking to rebound from series losses. The Reds just dropped two of three against the Braves and the Phillies just dropped two of three against the Dodgers. Cincinnati is four games back of the second Wild Card spot. Philadelphia leads the NL East by a half-game over the Mets. In tonight's series opener, Cincinnati hands the ball to righty Tyler Mahle (9-3, 3.78 ERA) and the Philadelphia counters with ace Zack Wheeler (10-6, 2.42 ERA). Wheeler is currently a + 170 favorite to win the NL Cy Young. This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -165 home favorite and Cincinnati a + 155 road dog. The public is jumping on the Reds at a big plus-money payout. However, despite this lopsided betting the line has moved toward the Phillies (-165 to -180). This signals sharp "fade the trendy dog" reverse line movement on the Phillies. Teams receiving 15-cents of steam or more are 200-134 (60%) this season. Non-division home favorites are 371-232 (62%). The Phillies are 32-27 as a favorite. The Reds are 24-28 as a dog. 

7:05 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (70-46) at Pittsburgh Pirates (41-74)

These NL Central rivals are trending in completely opposite directions. The Brewers lead the division and just swept the Cubs, improving to 14-5 over their last 19 games. Meanwhile, the Pirates sit in last place and have lost eight straight games. In tonight's series opener, the Brewers send out lefty Brett Anderson (4-5, 3.54 ERA) and the Pirates rebuttal with righty Mitch Keller (3-9, 7.06 ERA). This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a hefty -180 road favorite and Pittsburgh a + 165 home dog. Pros aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're happy to lay the big chalk, steaming the Brewers up from -180 to -200. Big favorites -200 or more coming off a win are 104-37 (74%) this season. Road favorites coming off a big win of 5-runs or more are 75-35 (68%). The Brewers are 57-35 against righties. The Pirates are 7-23 against lefties. Milwaukee is 52-35 as a favorite. Pittsburgh is 36-70 as a dog. The Brewers are + 116 in run differential. The Pirates are -183. Milwaukee is 12-4 against Pittsburgh this season. 

7:10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (69-46) at New York Mets (59-55)

Both of these teams find themselves in second place in their respective divisions. Los Angeles trailed the Giants by 5-games in the NL West while the Mets trail the Phillies by just a half-game in the NL East. In tonight's series opener, Los Angeles starts lefty Julio Urias (13-3, 3.41 ERA) and New York gives the ball to righty Tylor Megill (1-2, 3.20 ERA). This line opened with the Dodgers listed as a -140 road favorite and the Mets a + 130 home dog. Pros seem to think the line is a bit low and have steamed the Dodgers up from -140 to -150. New York has struggled against lefties, going just 13-23 against southpaws. The Dodgers are 69-43 as a favorite. The Mets are 18-25 as a dog. Los Angeles is + 181 in run differential. New York is -13. We could also be looking at a lower scoring game in this one. The total opened at 9 and smart under money has dropped it to 8.5. 

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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