Happy Fade the Public Friday! Today we have another loaded betting menu to choose from, highlighted by 15 MLB games. For an updated breakdown of Friday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting The Lombardi Line with Brady Kannon from noon-2 p.m. ET. We'll be joined by Pete Fiutak, Wes Reynolds and Tyler Fulghum.
In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several Friday night MLB matchups...
7:10 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (42-44) at Miami Marlins (38-48)
Both of these NL East foes made the playoffs last year but have so far disappointed this season. The Braves just dropped two of three against the lowly Pirates. Meanwhile, the Marlins just took three of four at home against the mighty Dodgers. In tonight's series opener, Atlanta hands the ball to veteran Charlie Morton (7-3, 3.91 ERA) and Miami counters with young righty Zach Thompson (2-2, 2.25 ERA). This line opened with the Braves listed as -140 road favorites and the Marlins a + 125 home dog. The public is all over Atlanta as the "better" team laying a short price. However, despite this lopsided support we've seen the Braves dip from -140 to -130. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Marlins (+ 125 to + 115). Miami has value as a divisional dog. Historically, dogs have performed well in divisional games as the built in familiarity levels the playing field. Home dogs have gone 209-252 (45.3%) this season but produced + 15 units won due to the plus-money payouts. Miami is + 20 in run differential this season. Atlanta is + 16. The Marlins are 21-19 at home. The Braves are 18-22 on the road.
7:10 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (42-43) at Boston Red Sox (54-34)
These Interleague opponents are coming off opposite series performances. The Phillies just took three of four against the Cubs at Wrigley. On the other hand, the Red Sox just dropped two of three at the Angels. In tonight's series opener, the Phillies start righty Vince Velasquez (3-3, 4.50 ERA) and the Red Sox tap fellow righty Garrett Richards (4-5, 4.88 ERA). This line opened with Boston listed as a -130 home favorite and Philadelphia a + 120 road dog. The public is rushing to the window to sweat the Red Sox at home. However, this line has moved away from Boston and toward the Phillies (+ 120 to + 115). Teams receiving line movement in Interleague Play have gone 90-63 (59%) this season, producing + 13 units. The Phillies also have value as a dog with a high total (11). Historically, high totals have benefited dogs as the higher amount of expected runs scored often leads to more variance and upset opportunities. We could be in for a high scoring game in this one. The total opened at 10.5 and quickly got bet up to 11. The forecast calls for mid 70s with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center at Fenway.
8:10 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers (40-48) at Minnesota Twins (36-50)
The Twins took Thursday's series opener 5-3, cashing as -130 home favorites. In tonight's rematch, the Tigers trot out righty Matt Manning (1-2, 7.94 ERA) and the Twins start veteran Kenta Maeda (4-3, 5.03 ERA). This line opened with Minnesota listed as a hefty -180 home favorite and Detroit a + 155 road dog. Sharps aren't scared off by the big price and have steamed the Twins up from -180 to -210. Home favorites -200 or more have gone 76-30 (72%) this season. Big favorites -200 or more off a win have gone 64-23 (74%). Teams receiving 15-cents of steam or more coming off a win are 145-90 (62%). The Twins are 4-2 against the Tigers this season. Minnesota will lean on their bats. The Twins are hitting .245, which ranks 9th. The Tigers are hitting .236, which ranks 18th. Pros also seem to be leaning on the under. The total opened at 9.5 and many books have fallen down to 9. Others are at 9.5 with the under juiced to -115, signaling under liability. The forecast calls for low 70s with 5-10 MPH winds blowing in from center at Target Field.
Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.