Friday MLB Sharp Report (7-2)

July 2, 2021 02:43 AM

Happy Fade the Public Friday! Today, we have another loaded betting menu, including 15 MLB games and 1 NHL Stanley Cup Final game. For an updated breakdown of Friday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line with Michael Lombardi and Brady Kannon at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several Friday night MLB matchups.

7:05 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (50-31) at Washington Nationals (40-39)

The Dodgers took last night's series opener 6-2 in a rain-shortened 5-inning game, taking care of business as -140 road favorites. Los Angeles has now won six straight games. In tonight's rematch, the Dodgers hand the ball to young lefty Julio Urias (9-3, 3.95 ERA) and the Nats start veteran ace Max Scherzer (7-4, 2.14 ERA). This line opened with Washington listed as a short -115 home favorite and Los Angeles a + 105 road dog. The public can't believe they're getting Scherzer at such a low price and are hammering the Nats. However, despite this lopsided support we've seen Washington fall slightly from -115 to -110. Essentially, the line is turning into a pick'em. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Dodgers (+ 105 to + 100). The Dodgers are + 110 in run differential this season. The Nats are -2. We could also be looking at a lower scoring game. The total is 8 with the under juiced up to -120, signaling a possible fall down to 7.5. The Nats have been one of the best under teams this season, going 51-26-2 to the under. 

7:10 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (49-33) at Cleveland Indians (42-36)

The Astros handled the Indians 7-2 in Thursday's series opener, cashing as -178 road favorites. The win snapped a four-game losing skid for Houston. It was the third straight loss for the Indians, who are now just 1-5 over their last six games. In tonight's rematch, the Astros start righty Lance McCullers (5-1, 2.94 ERA) and the Indians counter with lefty Sam Hentges (1-2, 7.31 ERA). This line opened with Houston listed as a hefty -172 road favorite and Cleveland a + 156 home dog. Sharps seem to be saying "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" and are steaming the Astros up from -172 to -183. Road favorites coming off a win of 5 or more runs are 43-26 (62.3%) this season. Houston has mashed lefties this season, going 20-15. Over the past four seasons, the Astros are 107-59 (64.5%) against lefties. Hosuton will lean on their advantage at the plate in this one. The Astros are hitting .275, which ranks 1st in MLB. The Indians are hitting .228, which ranks 25th. Wiseguys have also hit the under, dropping the total from 9.5 to 9. The forecast calls for low 70s with 10-15 MPH winds blowing in from straight center. 

9:40 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants (50-30) at Arizona Diamondbacks (23-60)

The Diamondbacks upset the Giants 5-3 in last night's series opener, cashing as + 135 home dogs. San Francisco still has the best record in baseball but has now dropped four games in a row. In tonight's rematch, the Giants send out veteran lefty Alex Wood (6-3, 3.91 ERA) and the DBacks counter with young righty Zac Gallen (1-3, 3.69 ERA). This line opened with the Giants listed as a -136 road favorite and the Snakes a + 124 home dog. Both Pros and Joes are expecting the Giants to snap their losing skid tonight, as we've seen San Francisco get steamed up from -136 to -148. Arizona has struggled mightily against left handers this season, going just 4-17 overall. San Francisco is 36-20 against righties. The Giants are 30-13 as a favorite. Arizona is 16-53 as a dog. Sharps have also hit this under, dropping the total from 9 to 8.5. If the Chase Stadium roof is closed, that provides a slight under edge. Historically, unders have done well in domes or closed roof stadiums as the ball doesn't travel as well indoors.

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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