Friday MLB Sharp Report (6-25)

June 25, 2021 12:57 AM

Happy Fade the Public Friday! Today, we have another loaded betting menu to choose from including 16 MLB games, 1 NBA playoff game and 1 NHL playoff game. For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line with Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several Friday MLB matchups...

4:10 p.m. ET: Colorado Rockies (31-44) at Milwaukee Brewers (42-33)

This late afternoon showdown pits one of the best teams in the National League against one of the worst. The Rockies own the 5th-worst record in MLB while the Brewers are tied with the Cubs for first place in the NL Central. In today's series opener, the Rockies start righty Jon Gray (4-6, 4.29 ERA) and the Brewers tap ace Corbin Burnes (3-4, 2.62 ERA). This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a hefty -220 home favorite and Colorado a + 200 road dog. Both Pros and Joes are laying the big number with the Brewers. This lopsided action has driven the Brew Crew up from -220 to -235. Non-division home teams receiving 10-cents of steam or more have gone 140-77 (64.5%) this season. Home favorites -150 or more after a day off are 36-16 (69.2%). Milwaukee also has value as a big favorite with a low total (7.5). Historically, low totals have benefited favorites as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the better team. Milwaukee is 27-23 as a favorite this season. The Rockies are 22-39 as a dog. The Brewers are 32-26 against righties. The Rockies are just 20-34 against righties. Colorado owns the worst road record of any team in baseball, going just 6-29 as a visitor. We could be looking at a lower scoring game in this one. The total is 7.5 with the under juiced to -115. 

7:07 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles (23-52) at Toronto Blue Jays (38-35)

The Blue Jays crushed the Orioles 9-0 in last night's series opener, easily winning as -180 home favorites. Toronto has now won five straight while Baltimore has dropped six straight. The Orioles are just 1-14 over their past 15 games. In this afternoon's rematch, Baltimore sends out veteran righty Matt Harvey (3-9, 7.80 ERA) and Toronto starts young righty Alek Manoah (1-0, 4.18 ERA). This line opened with the Jays listed as a heavy -200 home favorite and the Orioles a + 185 road dog. Pros aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They are once again celebrating "Fade Harvey Day" by steaming up the Jays from -200 to -225. The Orioles are a putrid 1-8 in the last nine games started by Harvey. Home favorites -200 or more are 63-20 (75.9%) this season. If they're also coming off a win, they improve to 52-16 (76.5%). Toronto is hitting .260 on the season, good for 2nd-best in MLB. Baltimore is just 11-26 on the road. The total opened at a high 11. The public is hammering the over on Harvey Day, yet we've actually seen this line fall from 11 to 10.5. This signals some wiseguy sharp reverse line movement to the under. 

8:10 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners (39-37) at Chicago White Sox (44-30)

These non-division opponents are trending in opposite directions as of late. The Mariners are an impressive 8-2 over their last ten games while the first-place White Sox are just 1-5 over their last six games. In tonight's series opener, the Mariners hand the ball to lefty Yusei Kikuchi (4-3, 3.46 ERA) and the White Sox counter with fellow southpaw Carlos Rodon (6-2, 1.83 ERA). This line opened with Chicago listed as a hefty -170 home favorite and Seattle a + 160 road dog. Sharps aren't scared off by this big number and have steamed the White Sox up from -170 to -180. Some shops are inching closer to -190. The White Sox have value as a non-division home favorite (250-151, 62.3% this season). The White Sox are also one of the best teams against lefties this season, going an impressive 18-6. Chicago will lean on their advantage at the plate in this one. The White Sox are hitting .250 (5th best in MLB). The Mariners are hitting .215 (29th). Chicago is 27-12 at home. Seattle is 15-21 on the road. We've also seen some under money show up, dropping the total from 8 to 7.5. The forecast calls for mid 70s with 10 MPH winds blowing in from right center. 

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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