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Friday MLB Sharp Report (5-21)

May 21, 2021 12:57 AM

Today we celebrate "Fade the Public Friday" with a loaded betting slate, featuring 15 MLB games, one final NBA play-in game and 4 NHL Stanley Cup playoff games. For an updated breakdown of Friday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting The Lombardi Line with Patrick Meagher LIVE from the South Point in Las Vegas from noon-2 p.m. ET.

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits page every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on

 

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several MLB games today...

7:05 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox (26-16) at New York Yankees (25-19)

This high profile showdown features two of the top six teams in the American League going head-to-head. The White Sox own the best record in the AL under first-year Manager Tony La Russa. Chicago is 7-3 over their last ten games and just took two of three at Minnesota. Meanwhile, the Yankees have rebounded from a lackluster start and now only trail the Red Sox by 1.5-games for first place in the AL East. New York is 14-5 over their last 19 games. In tonight's series opener, the White Sox send out lefty Carlos Rodon (5-1, 1.47 ERA) and the Yankees counter with fellow southpaw Jordan Montgomery (2-1, 4.75 ERA). This line opened at a virtual pick'em with both sides roughly -105. The public is all over the Bronx Bombers at home, yet this line has remained relatively frozen despite heavily lopsided betting. This signals some sharp reverse line move on the road dog. Chicago is 9-2 against lefties this season while New York is just 5-6. The White Sox are + 73 in run differential this season, best in MLB. The Yankees are + 15. We've also seen some under liability, with the total listed at 8.5 with the under juiced to -115. When the total is 8.5 or higher, the under is 161-138 (54%) this season. Both teams have played to the under this season, with Chicago 22-20 to the under and New York 26-18.

7:10 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (21-22) at Cincinnati Reds (19-23)

Both of these NL Central rivals have struggled mightily as of late. Milwaukee is just 1-5 over their last six games while Cincinnati just got swept at home by San Francisco. In tonight's series opener, the Brewers start righty Adrian Houser (3-4, 3.63 ERA) and the Reds counter with fellow righty Jeff Hoffman (2-3, 4.67 ERA). This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a short -110 road favorite and Cincinnati a + 100 home dog. The public is split down the middle, yet we've seen the Brew Crew rise from -110 to -117. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if the bets are even. So based on this move it appears as though the bigger, sharper wagers are backing Milwaukee. The Brewers have value as a rested favorite (at least one day off) against a team on the second leg of a back-to-back (23-16, 59% this season). We could also be looking at a higher-scoring game here. The total is 9 with some  books juicing the over to -115. The Reds are the best over team in baseball (27-13-2). Milwaukee is 19-16 against righties. Cincinnati is 16-21.

8:05 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (26-18) at Texas Rangers (19-27)

These AL West foes are trending in opposite directions. The Astros just took two of three at Oakland and are now 8-2 over their last ten games. On the flip side, the Rangers just got swept by the Yankees at home to fall to 1-9 over their last ten games. In tonight's series opener, the Astros hand the ball to Tyler Ivey, a top prospect set to make his MLB debut. The Rangers counter with veteran righty Kyle Gibson (3-0, 2.32 ERA). This line opened with Houston listed as a short -115 road favorite and Texas a + 105 home dog. Respected money isn't outthinking this one. Wiseguys are backing the better, hotter team and have steamed Houston from -115 to -125. Houston is + 66 in run differential. Texas is -24. The Astros are 21-15 as a favorite and the Rangers are 17-24 as a dog. Houston is 4-0 against Texas this season and 21-9 (70%) against divisional opponents. Keep an eye on the over in this one. The total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -120. Some shops are inching up to 9. Houston is 27-16-1 to the over this season. The over is 3-1 between these teams head-to-head.

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