Friday MLB Sharp Report (4-2)

April 2, 2021 01:06 AM

Bettors are in for a treat today as we have a plethora of games to choose from, including 7 MLB games, 10 NBA games and 6 NHL games. For an updated breakdown of Friday's action, including the top line moves, systems plays and sharp contrarian bets, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I will also be joining Patrick Meagher and Michael Lombardi on The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update. 

In the meantime, let's discuss a handful of MLB games receiving notable sharp action today...

7:10 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (1-0) at Miami Marlins (0-1)

The Rays edged the Marlins 1-0 in yesterday's opener, cashing as -150 road favorites. In today's rematch, the Rays give the ball to lefty Ryan Yarbrough (1-4, 3.56 ERA in 2020) while the Marlins counter with Pablo Lopez (6-4, 3.61 ERA). This line opened with the Rays listed as short -117 road favorites. The public is back on the Rays train expecting another win. However, this line has tanked in favor of the Marlins (+ 107 to -103). Essentially, this is becoming a pick'em after opening with the Rays as a favorite. This sharp movement signals respected money backing the Fish to bounce back at home. After yesterday's low scoring 1-0 game, the public is all over the under in this one. However, we're actually seeing the 7.5 juiced up to the over at-115 or -120. This signals some wiseguy contrarian over action. Be sure to check the status of the retractable roof. If the room is closed, it benefits the under due to the perfect conditions and the ball doesn't travel as well. If the roof is open, that could benefit the over, especially if the wind is blowing out to center. 

9:38 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox (0-1) vs Los Angeles Angels (1-0)

This Angels notched an upset win over the White Sox on Opening Day, beating Chicago 4-3 as + 105 home dogs. Today the White Sox will start veteran lefty Dallas Keuchel (6-2, 1.99 ERA in 2020) while the Angels counter with fellow southpaw Andrew Heaney (4-3, 4.46 ERA). This line opened at a virtual pick'em with both sides roughly -105. The public says the White Sox are the better team and have to bounce back and win today. But wiseguys look to be buying low on the Angels as we've seen Los Angeles move to a -115 favorite.  

9:40 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (1-0) at Oakland Athletics (0-1)

The Astros crushed the Athletics 8-1 on Wednesday, cruising as a slight -107 road favorite. In today's rematch, Houston will send out young righty Christian Javier (5-2, 3.48 ERA in 2020) and the A's will start lefty Jesus Luzardo (3-2, 4.12 ERA). Oakland opened as a moderate -135 home favorite. Right off the bat, this line speaks volumes. Yesterday the game was a virtual pick'em, while this game is weighted more heavily to Oakland. Wiseguys have gotten down on the Athletics to bounce back, pushing this line from Oakland -135 to -145. We've also seen some over money hit the market. Some shops opened the total at 8 and have jumped up to 8.5. The wind could provide a slight edge to the over as the forecast calls for 10 MPH winds blowing out to right-center. 

10:10 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks (0-1) vs San Diego Padres (1-0)

The Padres took care of business in yesterday's opener, beating the Diamondbacks 8-7 as hefty -230 home favorites. Today, Arizona sends Merrill Kelly (3-2, 2.59 ERA in 2020) to the mound to face newly acquired ace Blake Snell (4-2, 3.24 ERA), who will be making his Padres debut. This line opened with San Diego listed as a -225 home favorite. Respected money is going back to the well with the Padres, which has driven this line up to -230. Some shops are inching toward -240. We've also seen some under money hit the market. The 8.5 total is juiced to the under (-115) and some books look like they might be falling to 8. 

 

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