Friday March Madness Sharp Report


Today March Madness continues with 16 more matchups in the Round of 64. For an updated breakdown of Friday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 2:30 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line LIVE in studio at the South Point at 1:30 p.m. ET. Then I'll be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET at the Mandalay Bay, followed by a trip to Circa for Rush Hour with Danny Burke at 6:15 p.m. ET.

Best bets for every March Madness game

In the meantime, let's discuss several March Madness games receiving sharp action from respected bettors today …

3:10 p.m. ET: Miami vs USC

Miami (23-10 SU, 18-15 ATS) enters as the 10-seed and just fell to Duke 80-76 in the ACC Tournament semifinals, covering as 9-point dogs. Meanwhile, USC (26-7 SU, 15-18 ATS) enters as the 7-seed and just fell to UCLA 69-59 in the Pac 12 Tournament semifinals, failing to cover as 6-point dogs. This line opened with USC listed as a 1-point neutral court favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know who to back, yet we've seen USC move from -1 to -2. This signals pro money laying the points with the Trojans. Ken Pom has USC winning by one point (73-72). He has USC ranked 42nd and Miami 58th. USC has buy-low value as a "bad" ATS team (15-18) against a sell-high "good" ATS team (18-15). USC is -135 on the moneyline. Pros have also hit this under, dropping the total from 141 to 139.5.

4:30 p.m. ET: Virginia Tech vs Texas

Virginia Tech (23-12 SU, 19-16 ATS) enters as the 11-seed and just upset Duke 82-67 to win the ACC Tournament championship, winning outright as 6-point dogs. On the other hand, Texas (21-11 SU, 12-19-1 ATS) as the 6-seed but has lost three straight and just fell to TCU 65-60 in the Big 12 Tournament quarterfinals, losing outright as 5.5-point favorites. This line opened with Texas listed as a 1-point favorite. The public is riding the hot hand with Virginia Tech, yet we've seen this line remain frozen at Texas -1. This signals liability on Texas as a "fade the trendy dog" contrarian favorite. This is also a classic buy-low spot recency bias play in favor of Texas and against Virginia Tech. Ken Pom has Texas winning by two points (64-62). Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 125 to 123.5. 

9:40 p.m. ET: Davidson vs Michigan State

Davidson (27-6 SU, 19-12 ATS) enters as the 10-seed and just fell to Richmond 64-62 in the Atlantic 10 Tournament championship, losing outright as 3.5-point favorites. On the flip side, Michigan State (22-12 SU, 18-16 ATS) is the 7-seed and just lost to Purdue 75-70 in the Big Tournament Semifinals but covered as 6.5-point dogs. This line opened with Michigan State listed as a short 1.5-point favorite. The public is biased toward Sparty this time of year and is rushing to the window to lay the points with Michigan State. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen Michigan State from -1.5 to -1 and even inch toward a pick'em at some shops. This indicates wiseguy action on Davidson plus the points. Ken Pom has Davidson winning the game by one point (73-72).

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The Lombardi Line: Bookmakers love parleys, when playing them, you want a mix of favorites and underdogs.

Pro Football Blitz: When you back teams on the raod you want a good running team, when you back teams at home you want a good passing team. With teams on the road usually the underdog, you want a team that can control time of possession like the Tennessee Titans.



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