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Friday College Hoops Sharp Report (3-12)

March 12, 2021 01:10 AM

It's Fade the Public Friday and bettors have a loaded slate of sweats to choose from as we wrap up the work week and head into the weekend. Conference tournaments continue with roughly 40 games on tap, along with 7 NBA games and 5 NHL games. For an updated breakdown of Friday's action, including the top line moves, systems plays and sharp contrarian bets, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 12:30 p.m. ET. I will also be joining Patrick Meagher and Michael Lombardi on The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update. 

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of Friday college hoops matchups receiving notable line movement...

11:30 a.m. ET: Maryland vs Michigan

This Big Ten quarterfinal matchup is the first game of the day. Maryland (16-12) enters as the 8-seed and just took down Michigan State 68-57 in yesterday's semifinal, easily covering as 1.5-point favorites. Now the Terps face 1-seed Michigan (19-3, ranked 4th), who dominated much of the regular season but stumbled a bit down the stretch, losing two of their final three games to Illinois and Michigan State. This line opened with Michigan listed as an 8.5-point favorite. Respected money seems to be leaning toward the Terps in this one as the line has remained frozen at 8.5 and even dipped to 8 at some shops. Essentially, all liability has been on Maryland and the points. Ken Pom has Michigan winning by seven points, which provides some actionable value on the Terps at the current number. Maryland has buy-low value as an unranked conference dog vs a ranked opponent. The Terps also have the advantage of getting a win under their belt and carrying some momentum into this game, while Michigan is making their tournament debut. One big injury to monitor here is Michigan senior guard Eli Brooks (8.7 PPG). He is a team leader and one of their best defenders. He is questionable with an ankle injury and may miss the game. The total for this game is 133. Both teams are slow paced (Michigan 67.2 and Maryland 65.4). Both are also profitable to the under this season, with Michigan 14-8 and Maryland 16-10-1. 

6 p.m. ET: Georgetown vs Seton Hall

Both of these Big East opponents knocked off higher seeds to reach today's semifinal matchup. Georgetown (11-12) is the 8-seed and just shocked 1-seed Villanova yesterday 72-71, winning outright as 6.5-point dogs. On the flip side, Seton Hall (14-12) is the 5-seed and just knocked off 4-seed St. John's 77-69 in overtime, covering as 3-point favorites. This line opened with Seton Hall listed as a short 2-point favorite. The public is all over Georgetown getting points after their impressive upset over Nova. However, despite this lopsided support we've actually seen the line move from Seton Hall -2 to -2.5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Pirates, with pros fading the trendy dog and backing the contrarian favorite. Ken Pom has Seton Hall winning by three points. He also has Seton Hall ranked much higher (49th vs 72nd). Bettors who are wary of laying the points in a tight game might prefer to take Seton Hall on the moneyline instead of the spread. We've also seen some under money show up, dropping the total from 142.5 to 141.5. Both of these teams are profitable to the under, with Georgetown 12-11 and Seton Hall 15-11. These teams split two regular season matchups, with Seton Hall winning 78-67 and Georgetown winning 81-75. 

6:30 p.m. ET: Georgia Tech vs Virginia

This ACC semifinal showdown features a pair of teams who both eked out close victories in yesterday's semifinals. Georgia Tech (16-8) is the 4-seed and just beat Miami 70-66 but failed to cover as 10-point favorites. Meanwhile, Virginia (18-6, ranked 16th) needed a buzzer beater to beat Syracuse 72-69, although they failed to cover as 5.5-point favorites. This line opened with Virginia listed as a 4.5-point favorite. The public is split and doesn't know whether to take the points or lay them. But pros seem to be siding with underdog Georgia Tech as this line has dipped from 4.5 to 4. Ken Pom has Virginia winning by three points, which provides an actionable edge to the Yellow Jackets at the current price. Georgia Tech has value as an unranked conference dog vs a ranked opponent. Georgia Tech is also riding a seven game win streak while Virginia is just 3-3 over their last six games. This is also a revenge game for Georgia Tech, who is 0-2 against Virginia this season. The Cavs won both regular season matchups 57-49 and 64-62. 

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