Friday College Hoops Sharp Action Report

February 12, 2021 12:49 AM

Bettors are in for a treat today as we have a jam-packed Friday betting menu filled with 40+  College Basketball games, 11 NBA games and 2 NHL games. For an updated breakdown of Friday's action, including the top line moves and sharp contrarian bets, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I will also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:45 p.m. ET to offer a market update. 

In the meantime, let's discuss a few Friday college hoops matchups receiving notable line movement...

7 p.m. ET: St. Bonaventure at VCU

Bragging rights and conference tournament seeding is on this line with this showdown between Atlantic 10 elites. St. Bonaventure (10-2 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) is 8-1 over their last nine games and just took down La Salle 86-73, pushing as 13-point favorites. Similarly, VCU (14-4 SU, 10-8 ATS) has won four straight and just beat Dayton 76-67, easily covering as 2.5-point favorites. This line opened with VCU listed as a short 3-point home favorite. This public is rushing to lay the points with VCU at home, yet we've seen this line remain frozen at 3. In fact, many books are juicing up the Bonnies + 3 (-115), signaling a possible fall to 2.5. This signals some liability on St. Bonaventure plus the points. The Bonnies have value as a short road conference dog and a buy-low contrarian bet in a primetime game. Ken Pom has VCU winning by two points, which means Bonnies + 3 has actionable value. Ken Pom has the Bonnies ranked 50th in the country while VCU is ranked 52nd.

7:30 p.m. ET: UAB at Louisiana Tech

This Conference-USA matchup may not be garnering big headlines but wiseguys have taken notice. UAB (16-2 SU, 10-5-2 ATS) is on a roll, winning six straight and nine of their last ten. Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech (15-6 SU, 13-8 ATS) is 7-2 over their last nine games, although they lost to North Texas 57-55 their last time out but managed to cover as 4.5-point dogs. This line opened with Louisiana Tech listed as a short 2-point home favorite. Respected money has run to the window to grab the points with UAB, which has forced oddsmakers to drop this line down to 1. Ken Pom has Louisiana Tech winning this game by one point, so UAB anything + 1.5 or higher was the ideal number for wiseguys. UAB has value as a short conference road dog with a line move in their favor. Ken Pom has UAB the higher ranked team (87 vs 96). 

8 p.m. ET: Georgia Tech at Clemson

On a Friday with very few "big name" matchups, this ACC showdown is at the top of the list. Georgia Tech (9-7 SU, 7-9 ATS) has struggled as of late, losing two of their last three and four of their last six. The Yellow Jackets just fell to Virginia 57-49, failing to cover as 4-point home dogs. On the flip side, Clemson (12-5 SU, 9-7-1 ATS) has won two in a row and three of their last four, most recently crushing North Carolina and then Syracuse. This line opened with Clemson listed as a short 5-point home favorite. This public is all over Clemson at home, yet we've seen this line fall from 5 to 4.5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on Georgia Tech, with respected money grabbing the Yellow Jackets plus the points. Ken Pom has Clemson winning by three points, which provides an edge to Georgia Tech at + 4.5 or better. The Yellow Jackets are contrarian in a heavily bet primetime game and have value as a buy low, sell high conference road dog with a line move in their favor. 

8:30 p.m. ET: Arkansas Little Rock at Arkansas State

This Sun Belt showdown features two teams trending in opposite directions. Little Rock (10-9 SU, 5-12-1 ATS) has a winning record but is riding a two-game losing skid, dropping a pair of games at Texas State. On the other hand, Arkansas State (8-9 SU, 6-7-1 ATS) has a losing record but has won two straight, sweeping Louisiana at home in a back-to-back. This line opened with Little Rock listed as a short 2-point road favorite. The public is overlooking this game, but sharps seem to be buying low on Little Rock to bounce back as we've seen the line climb from Little Rock -2 to -3. Ken Pom has Little Rock ranked as the better team (187 vs 260). He has Little Rock winning this game by two points. As a result, since it may be a close game it might be smarter to back Little Rock on the moneyline (-145) instead of laying the points.

More Friday Line Movement

Illinois Chicago -1 to -1.5 at IUPUI

Rice-Western Kentucky Over 147.5 to 148

Quinnipiac -3 to -4 vs Canisius

Northern Kentucky-Wisconsin Green Bay Under 142.5 to 140.5

MTSU-Marshall Over 143 to 144

Wisconsin Milwaukee-Wright State Over 144.5 to 145.5

Detroit + 3.5 to + 3 at Cleveland State

New Mexico State -6.5 to -8 at Seattle

Hawaii + 6 to + 5 vs Cal Santa Barbara

Tulane + 6 to + 4.5 at Central Florida

Cal Irvine -1 to -1.5 at UC Riverside

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