Friday College Football Sharp Report

September 9, 2022 01:02 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a new 10-15 minutes podcast that quickly highlights the biggest games and most notable line moves every weekday. For an in-depth breakdown of Friday's action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for tonight's College Football matchups...


7:30 p.m. ET: Louisville (0-1) at Central Florida (1-0)

These non-conference foes are coming off polar opposite performances in their season openers. Louisville just got crushed by Syracuse 31-7, losing outright as 5.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Central Florida crushed South Carolina State 56-10, covering as 43.5-point home favorites. 

This line opened with Central Florida listed as a 6-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with UCF. However, despite 79% of bets backing UCF at DraftKings, we've seen this line fall from 6 to 5.5. This signals some respected money grabbing the points with the road dog. Louisville has value as a contrarian road dog with a reverse line move in their favor. Louisville is also in a buy-low, sell high spot as the Cardinals are coming off a blowout loss and UCF is coming off a blowout win. 

The total hasn't budged off the opener of 61.5. Currently 66% of bets and 73% of money are sweating the over. The forecast calls for low 80s with 5 MPH winds. 


9 p.m. ET: Boise State (0-1) at New Mexico (1-0)

These Mountain West rivals are also coming off completely different performances in their season openers. Boise State fell to Oregon State 34-17, failing to cover as 1.5-point road dogs. On the flip side, New Mexico crushed Maine 41-0, easily covering as 6-point home favorites. 

This line opened with Boise State listed as a 17-point road favorite. The public expects a bounce back performance for the Broncos is happy to lay the points with Boise State. However, despite 76% of bets backing Boise State, we've seen this line remain frozen at 17. In fact, it briefly fell down to 16 before rising back up to 17. Essentially, all liability and movement has been toward New Mexico State. This signals respected money grabbing the points with the home dog. 

The total opened at 46.5 and has fallen to 44, signaling sharp action on the under. The under is receiving only 14% of bets but 47% of the money, indicating a sharp bet discrepancy toward the under. The forecast calls for low 80s with 7-10 MPH winds. 

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