Friday College Football Sharp Report: Virginia-Syracuse, Nevada-Air Force and Boise State-UTEP

September 22, 2022 10:59 PM
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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 10-15 minute podcast at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the biggest games and top line moves each day. For a full breakdown of Friday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum at 3 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of College Football games tonight...

 

7 p.m. ET: Virginia (2-1) at Syracuse (3-0)

Both of these ACC rivals are coming off victories. Virginia just edged Old Dominion 16-14 but failed to cover as 8.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Syracuse just took down Purdue 32-29, covering as 1.5-point home favorites. Virginia is 0-3 ATS while Syracuse is 3-0 ATS. This line opened with Syracuse listed as a 9.5-point home favorite. We've seen this line rise to Syracuse -10. It even touched 10.5 but that's when some Virginia buyback with the hook dropped it back down to 10 where it rests now. The public is all over Syracuse, with 77% of bets at DraftKings laying the chalk with the home favorite. Both teams are giving up roughly 17 PPG on defense. The difference comes on offense, where Syracuse is averaging 37 PPG compared to just 18 PPG for Virginia. Sharps have also gotten down on the under, dropping the total from 55 to 54. Some shops are even inching down to 53.5. 

 

8 p.m. ET: Nevada (2-2) at Air Force (2-1)

Both of these Mountain West foes are coming off losses. Nevada just got rolled by Iowa 27-0, failing to cover as 24-point road dogs. On the flip side, Air Force just fell to Wyoming 17-14, losing straight up as 16.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Air Force listed as a 24.5-point home favorite. The line has remained static and hasn't budged off the opener, indicating some solid two-way action on both sides. Currently 57% of bets are laying the big number with Air Force. Pros have leaned under. Currently 70% of bets are taking the over, yet we've seen this total fall from 47.5 to 46.5. The under is only receiving 30% bets but 49% money, signaling a sharp money under discrepancy. Air Force holds a significant edge on offense (34 PPG vs 25 PPG) and on defense (allowing 15 PPG vs 27 PPG), while also enjoying an altitude advantage in the rarified air of Colorado. 

 

9 p.m. ET: Boise State (2-1) at UTEP (1-3) 

Neither of these teams have covered a spread this season. Boise State is coming off a 30-7 win over UT Martin, but failed to cover as 24.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, UTEP just lost to New Mexico 27-10, losing outright as 2-point road favorites. This line opened with Boise State listed as a 16-point road favorite. This number briefly dipped to 15.5 before bouncing back to 16. Essentially, anytime it falls to 15.5 we see a lot of buyback on Boise State -15.5, raising the line back to the opener. The public is siding with Boise State, who is receiving 72% of bets. Boise State has the better offense (26 PPG vs 14 PPG) and the better defense (allowing 18 PPG vs 29 PPG). Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 46.5 to 45.5. Currently 36% of bets and 69% of money is on the under, signaling a massive smart money discrepancy on a low scoring games. UTEP is 3-0-1 to the under. Boise State is 2-1 to the under.

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