Friday College Football Sharp Report: Nebraska-Rutgers, Houston-Memphis & UNLV-San Jose State

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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves each day. For a comprehensive breakdown of Friday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where smart money is leaning for a trio of College Football games tonight...

 

7 p.m. ET: Nebraska (2-3) at Rutgers (3-2)

Nebraska just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 35-21 win over Indiana last week, covering as 6.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Rutgers started 3-0 but has since lost two straight. Rutgers just got rolled by Ohio State 49-10 last week, pushing as 39-point road dogs. This line opened with Nebraska listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is happy to lay the short spread with the Cornhuskers. However, despite 63% of bets backing Nebraska, we've seen this line remain stagnant at 3. Some shops are even juicing up the Rutgers side +3 at -115, signaling a possible drop 2.5. This indicates a sharp line freeze on Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are only receiving 37% of bets but 50% of money, a sharp +13% bet vs dollar discrepancy. Rutgers also has value as a short contrarian home conference dog in a primetime game. The total has dipped slightly from 51.5 to 50.5, signaling some under liability. The under is receiving 40% of bets but 52% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy. Rutgers ranks 18th in the nation in total defense. 

 

7:30 p.m. ET: Houston (2-3) at Memphis (4-1)

Houston has lost three of its last four games and just fell to Tulane 27-24 in overtime, losing outright as 5-point home favorites. On the flip side, Memphis is riding a 4-game win streak and just dismissed Temple 24-3, covering as 18.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Memphis listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public sees an easy win and cover with Memphis. However, despite 69% of bets laying the points with the Tigers, we've seen Memphis fall from -3 to -2.5. Why would oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for Memphis to cover when the public is already hammering them to begin with? If it looks too good to be true, it usually is. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the road dog, with pros buying low on Houston +3. The Cougars are receiving 31% of bets but 48% of money, a sharp discrepancy in their favor. The total has fallen from 59.5 to 57.5, indicating some wiseguy money on the under. This is interesting because both teams are 4-1 to the over on the season and 74% of bets are taking the over tonight.

 

10:30 p.m. ET: UNLV (4-1) at San Jose State (3-1)

UNLV is riding a three-game win streak and just beat New Mexico 31-20 but failed to cover as 14-point home favorites. On the other hand, San Jose State has won two straight games and just crushed Wyoming 33-16, easily covering as 2.5-point road favorites. This line opened with San Jose State listed as a 5-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know which side to take. But we've seen San Jose State move from -5 to -6.5. Theoretically, in a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if the bets are even. So the fact this line has risen to San Jose State despite a split ticket count indicates sharp money laying the points with the home favorite. 

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