Friday College Football Sharp Report: Navy-SMU and UTSA-FIU

USATSI_19188684

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a comprehensive breakdown of Friday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast. It will be posted at 2:30 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of College Football games tonight...

 

7:30 p.m. ET: Navy (2-3) at SMU (2-3)

Both of these American Athletic Conference rivals are looking to climb back to .500. Navy is coming off a 51-21 blowout win over Tulsa, easily winning outright as 4.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, SMU started the season 2-0 but have since lost three straight games. SMU just fell to UCF 41-19, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with SMU listed as a 10.5-point home favorite. The public is split right down the middle 50/50 and doesn't know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this even between we've seen SMU move from -10.5 to -12.5. This signals some smart money laying the points with SMU at home. SMU holds a big edge offensively, averaging 35 PPG compared to just 21 PPG for Navy. SMU also holds a rest advantage, having last played on October 5th compared to October 8th for Navy. We've also seen the total tick up from 56 to 57. This is notable because 63% of bets are taking the under, yet the total rise. This indicates sharp contrarian over money. 

 

8 p.m. ET: UTSA (4-2) at FIU (2-3)

These Conference USA rivals are at opposite ends of the conference standings. UTSA has won three straight games and just beat Western Kentucky 31-28 although they failed to cover as 6.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, FIU has last three of their last four games and just fell to Connecticut 33-12, failing to cover as 5.5-point home dogs. This line opened with UTSA listed as a 32-point road favorite. The public is split down the middle 50/50, yet we've seen UTSA rise from -32 to -33.5, signaling sharp money laying the points and expecting a UTSA blowout win and cover. UTSA is averaging 37 PPG compared to just 17 PPG for FIU. Pros have also hit this under, dropping the total from 64 to 63. The forecast calls for high 70s and 10 MPH winds. Historically, the under is roughly 56% over the past decade when the wind blows 10 MPH or more. 

back to news

PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

PRO TIPS

The Lombardi Line: Pay attention to the offseason moves in baseball, futures prices are changing. As teams build their roster through free agency and trades, monitor the futures markets.View more tips

The Greg Peterson Experience: Fade bad NFL teams on lookahead lines, because they get steamed after another bad performance. View more tips

 

PRO PICKS

Paul Howard: Seahawks Win NFC West +350. View more picks

Gill Alexander: Bengals (-6) vs. Browns. View more picks

 

 

 

Subscriber Only News  Vsin Exclusive

View All

Close