Friday College Football Sharp Report: FSU-Louisville and Air Force-Wyoming


Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 10-15 minute podcast highlighting the top games and line moves bettors need to know about each day. For an in-depth breakdown of Friday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for tonight's College Football doubleheader...


7:30 p.m. ET: Florida State (2-0) at Louisville (1-1) 

Both of these ACC rivals are coming off big upset wins. Florida State just took down LSU 24-23, winning outright as 4-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Louisville just beat Central Florida 20-14, winning outright as 5.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Florida State listed as a short 1.5-point road favorite. The public is absolutely hammering the Seminoles, with 85% of bets laying the points with FSU at DraftKings. This heavily lopsided betting drove Florida State up from -1.5 to -3. That's when we saw sharp buyback on Louisville at the key number of 3, dropping the line back down to 2.5. Louisville has elevated contrarian value as an unpopular home dog receiving only 15% of bets in a heavily bet, primetime game. We've also seen respected money hit this over, driving the total up from 54.5 to 57. The over is receiving 55% of bets but 67% of money, a 12% smart money discrepancy. The forecast calls for near perfect conditions: partly cloudy, high 70s with little to no wind.


8 p.m. ET: Air Force (2-0) at Wyoming (2-1)

Both of these Mountain West foes are riding two-game win streaks. Air Force just rolled over Colorado 41-10, easily covering as 17.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Wyoming just edged Northern Colorado 33-10, although Wyoming failed to cover as 23.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Air Force listed as a 14.5-point road favorite. Early money laid the chalk with Air Force, steaming the Falcons up to -17. That's when respected buyback hit Wyoming +17, dropping the line back down to 16.5 where it stands now. Wyoming is only receiving 36% of bets but 51% of the money, a 15% sharp money discrepancy in their favor. Wyoming also has buy-low value as a "bad" ATS team (1-2) against a sell-high "good" ATS team (2-0). Wiseguys have also targeted the under, dropping the total from 49 to 47. The forecast calls for low 60s with 10 MPH winds. This would qualify as a "windy under" system match. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more, the under is roughly 55% over the past decade. The under is receiving 31% of bets but 54% of money, another sharp discrepancy. 

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