Friday College Football Sharp Report: Duke-BC and Oregon State-Washington

November 4, 2022 12:27 AM
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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a comprehensive breakdown of Friday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast. It will be posted by 2:30 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's examine a pair of College Football games receiving sharp action tonight...

 

7 p.m. ET: Duke (-10.5, 47) at Boston College 

Duke (5-3) is well-rested and coming off a bye. Prior to the bye week, Duke snapped a two-game losing skid with a 45-21 victory over Miami, winning outright as 10-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Boston College (2-6) has lost three straight and just fell to Connecticut 13-3, losing outright as 7.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Duke listed as a 9.5-point road favorite. The public sees an easy blowout win and cover for the road favorite and currently 75% of bets are laying laying the points with Duke. This lopsided betting has pushed Duke up from -9.5 to -10.5. This line has consistently climbed toward Duke with no buyback whatsoever on Boston College. The Eagles could be missing starting QB Phil Jurkovec due to injury. Duke has a clear edge on offense (34 PPG vs 17 PPG) and on defense (allowing 22 PPG vs 29 PPG). Pros have also targeted this under, dropping the total from 49 to 47. The under is getting 35% of bets but 52% of money, a sharp "low bets, higher dollars" under bet discrepancy. The forecast calls for low 60s with 10 MPH winds. 

 

10:30 p.m. ET: Oregon State at Washington (-4.5, 54.5) 

Both of these teams are coming off a bye. Oregon State (6-2, ranked 23rd) has won three straight and just crushed Colorado 42-9, easily covering as 23-point home favorites. On the flip side, Washington (6-2) has won two straight and just held off California 28-21 but failed to cover as 7.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Washington listed as a 4-point home favorite. Currently 60% of bets are laying the points with Washington, driving the Huskies up from -4 to -4.5. However, we're starting to see the Oregon State +4.5 get juiced up to -115, signaling a possible fall back down to 4. Oregon State has value as a short road dog +4.5 or less (roughly 55% ATS the past decade). Washington has the better offense (40 PPG vs 33 PPG) but Oregon State has the better defense (allowing 23 PPG vs 28 PPG). We've also seen some major steam hit the under, dropping the total from 60 to 54.5. The weather could be a big reason for the move, as the forecast calls for rain and 15 MPH winds. The under is receiving 55% of bets but 76% of money, a sharp under bet discrepancy. 

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

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