Friday CFB Sharp Report

tulsa

 

The Packers came up huge for contrarian bettors and sportsbooks last night, upsetting the Cardinals 24-21 on Thursday Night Football and winning outright as 6.5-point road dogs. This was a classic example of buying on bad news and taking advantage of a contrarian inflated dog. 

Arizona opened -3.5 and shot up to -6.5 with all the COVID issues surrounding Green Bay. Essentially all the value was gone on Arizona at -6.5 since you were laying the worst of the number. On the other hand, buying low on Green Bay  6.5 wasn't exactly a sharp play but instead a "value" play since you were getting so many points off the opener.

With the cover, primetime dogs improve to 15-7 ATS (68%). Conference dogs 7 or less improve to 36-20 ATS (64%). We also saw the sharp under come through. Despite the public hammering the over, the total fell from 52.5 to 51, indicating some respected under money. 

Now it's on to Friday, where bettors have a loaded betting menu to choose from including Game 3 of the World Series, 7 NBA games, 6 NHL games and a pair of College Football games. 

For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for tonight's two College Football matchups...

7:30 p.m. ET: Navy at Tulsa

This American Conference matchup features two teams trending in opposite directions. Navy (1-6 SU, 4-3 ATS) has lost three straight and just fell to Cincinnati 27-20, although Navy covered as big 28.5-point home dogs. On the flip side, Tulsa (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) has won two straight and three of their last four, most recently beating South Florida 32-31 but failing to cover as 7-point road favorites. This line opened with Tulsa listed as a 10-point home favorite. The public says this line is too high and is jumping on Navy plus the points, especially after they just hung tough against 2nd-ranked Cincinnati. However, despite a majority of bets backing Navy, we've seen this line move from Tulsa -10 to -11. This sharp reverse line movement signals wiseguy action fading the trendy dog and laying the points with the contrarian favorite. Tulsa has a rest advantage as they're coming off a bye and Navy is on a short week having just played last Saturday. Both of these teams are giving up roughly 32 PPG on defense. The difference comes on offense, where Tulsa is averaging 25 PPG compared to Navy averaging just 18 PPG. 

10 p.m. ET: UNLV at Nevada

This late night Mountain West clash looks like an epic mismatch on paper. UNLV (0-7 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) is winless this season and just fell to San Jose State 27-20, failing to cover as 6-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Nevada (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS) just fell to Fresno State 34-32, although the Wolfpack covered as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Nevada listed as a big 20.5-point home favorite. The public has no problem laying big points with Nevada against an 0-7 UNLV squad. This lopsided support briefly pushed the line up to 21. Since that time, we've seen buyback on UNLV with the line falling back to 20.5 or even 20 at some shops. Road conference dogs that see the line stay the same or move in their favor are 44-36 ATS (55%) this season. UNLV has a two-day rest advantage, having last played on October 21st while Nevada played October 23rd.

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