Friday CFB Sharp Report

memphis

 

Happy Friday! Today bettors have a loaded betting menu to choose from including 9 NBA games, 2 NHL games, 50 College Basketball games and a handful of College Football games.

For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several of tonight's College Football matchups...

 

8 p.m. ET: Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech

This Conference USA showdown features two cellar dwellers fighting for pride. Southern Miss (1-9 SU) has dropped eight straight but they hung tough with UTSA last week, losing 27-17 but covering as 32.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech (3-7 SU) just beat Charlotte 42-32, covering as 7-point home favorites. The win snapped a five-game losing skid for Louisiana Tech. This line opened with Louisiana Tech listed as a 17-point home favorite. Respected money thinks this line is a bit high and has jumped on Southern Miss, dropping the line from 17 to 15.5. Southern Miss has value as a conference road dog with a line move in their favor. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 50.5 to 49. 

 

9 p.m. ET: Memphis at Houston

This American Athletic Conference showdown looks lopsided on paper. Memphis (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) is just 2-5 over their last seven games. The Tigers fell to East Carolina 30-29 last week, losing outright as 4-point home favorites. On the flip side, Houston (9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS) has won 9 straight games and is ranked 24th in the country. The Cougars just dismissed Temple 37-7, covering as 25-point home favorites. This line opened with Houston listed as a 9.5-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with the ranked, red-hot Cougars at home. However, we've seen this line fall from 9.5 to 8.5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on road dog Memphis plus the points. Memphis has value as a road conference dog and a buy-low unranked dog against sell-high ranked opponent. We've also seen some under money show up, dropping the total slightly from 61 to 60. 

 

9 p.m. ET: Air Force at Nevada

These Mountain West rivals are batting for a top spot in the conference standings. Air Force (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) is coming off a 35-21 win over Colorado State, easily covering as 3-point road favorites. Meanwhile, Nevada (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) just fell to San Diego State 23-21, although the Wolfpack covered as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Nevada listed as a short 2-point home favorite. The public is laying the points with Nevada at home. However, this line has fallen from 2 to 1, signaling some wiseguy action grabbing Air Force plus the points. Short road dogs  4 or less are are roughly 54% ATS the past decade. If this creeps closer to a pick'em, that will indicate further Air Force support. Nevada has the edge on offense (34.9 PPG vs 28.3 PPG), but Air Force has the superior defense (allowing 17.6 PPG vs 24.2 PPG).

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