Friday CFB Sharp Report

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Happy Fade the Public Friday! Today we have a loaded betting menu to choose from, including three college football games and 15 MLB games. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.
 
In the meantime, let's discuss where the action is flowing for several Friday Night College Football matchups...
 
 
7:30 p.m. ET: Houston at Tulsa
 
This AAC showdown features two teams polar opposite records. Houston (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) has won three straight games after dropping their season opener to Texas Tech. The Cougars just took down Navy 28-20 last week, although they failed to cover as 20-point home favorites. On the other hand, Tulsa (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) finally secured their first win of the season last week, snapping a three-game losing skid with 41-34 win over Arkansas State, although they failed to cover as 14.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Tulsa listed as 3.5-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know which way to go. Early money looked to have leaned Tulsa as the line ticked up to -4 or -4.5, but since that time it's been a steady dose of Houston money, dropping the line back down to 3.5. Reading between the lines, it looks like the late money is breaking toward Houston. The Cougars have value as a short road dog + 4 or less (54-percent ATS the past decade). Houston also has value as a road conference dog. Tulsa has the edge on offense (490 yards per game vs 363) but Houston has the far better defense (246 yards allowed vs 395). Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 57 to 54. The forecast calls for low 70s with 5 MPH winds and possibly some rain. 
 
 
8 p.m. ET: Iowa at Maryland
 
This Big Ten grudge match between undefeated teams is the most heavily bet game of the Friday night slate. Iowa (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) enters this conference showdown ranked 5th in the country, having just taken down Colorado State 24-14, although the Hawkeyes failed to cover as 23.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Maryland (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) just beat Kent State 37-16, covering as 13-point home favorites. This line opened with Iowa listed as a 4-point road favorite. The public can't believe the mighty Hawkeyes are laying such a short number and they're rushing to the window to back Iowa. But pros think this line looks fishy. Why is Iowa only favored by a handful of points if they're ranked 5th overall? Despite heavily lopsided betting in favor of Iowa, we've seen the Hawkeyes fall from -4 to -3. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the home dog Terps, who are also contrarian in a heavily bet game. Maryland also has buy-low value as an unranked conference dog against a ranked opponent. We've also seen some over money show up, causing oddsmakers to adjust the total up from 46 to 47.5. Iowa is 4-0 to the under and Maryland is 3-1 to the under. 
 
 
9 p.m. ET: BYU at Utah State
 
This late night matchup is the most lopsided game of the night, which provides unique value to contrarian minded bettors. BYU (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) is undefeated and ranked 13th. The Cougars are coming off a 35-27 win over South Florida, although BYU failed to cover as 23-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Utah State (3-1 SU 3-1 ATS) started the season 3-0 but suffered their first loss last week, falling to Boise State 27-3 and failing to cover as 9.5-point home dogs. This line opened with BYU listed as an 8.5-point road favorite. The public is hammering BYU, expecting an easy double digit win and cover from a ranked team. This lopsided betting has pushed BYU up from -8.5 to -10. Once the line reached the key number of 10, we saw some buyback on Utah State. The Aggies have value as the top contrarian play of the night, a buy-low dog off a blowout loss of 20-points or more and an unranked inflated home dog against a ranked opponent. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game here. The total has been steamed up from 57.5 to 63.5. Both teams are averaging roughly 30 PPG on offense. The difference comes on defense, where BYU is allowing 19 PPG and Utah State is giving up 30 PPG. 
 
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