Friday CFB Sharp Report

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Happy Friday! The Thanksgiving Holiday continues today with 16 College Football games, kicking off at noon and taking us throughout the night. Bettors also have 12 NBA games and 13 NHL games to choose from.

For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several of today's College Football matchups...

 

12 p.m. ET: Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan

This early MAC showdown features two red-hot teams fighting for the top spot in the conference. Eastern Michigan (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS) has won three of their last four games and just upset Western Michigan 22-21, winning outright as 6-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Central Michigan (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) has won four straight and just dominated Ball State 37-17, easily covering as 2.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Central Michigan listed as an 8.5-point home favorite. Early money laid the points, driving Central Michigan up from -8.5 to -9. The next move will be meaningful. If we see it tick back down to 8.5 or lower that will indicate some dog support. MAC road dogs are 14-7 ATS (67%) this season. We've also seen respected money lean under, dropping the total from 64 to 63.5. Weather could play a factor here. The forecast calls for high 20s with 15 MPH winds. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more and the total falls, the under is 48-25 (66%) this season. 

 

1 p.m. ET: Utah State at New Mexico

This Mountain West clash looks lopsided on paper. Utah State (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) sits near the top of the conference but just fell to Wyoming 44-17, losing outright as 5.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, New Mexico (3-8 SU, 1-10 ATS) is in the basement and just got crushed by Boise State 37-0, failing to cover as 27.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Utah State listed as a 16-point road favorite. Sharps aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They've steamed Utah State up from -16 to -17. Both teams are giving up roughly 28 PPG on defense. The difference comes on offense, where Utah State is averaging 32 PPG compared to just 12 PPG for New Mexico. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 49.5 to 48.5. Utah State is 6-5 to the under this season. New Mexico is 8-3 to the under. 

 

1:30 p.m. ET: Iowa at Nebraska 

These Big Ten rivals are at opposite ends of the conference standings. Iowa (9-2 SU, 6-5 ATS) has won three straight games and is ranked 17th. Iowa just beat Illinois 33-23, although they failed to cover as 12-point home favorites. On the flip side, Nebraska (3-8 SU, 7-4 ATS) has lost five straight, most recently falling to Wisconsin 35-28, although the Cornhuskers covered as 10-point road dogs. The early opener for this game was Nebraska listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public is hammering Iowa as a short dog, which has dropped the line to Nebraska -1. This line seems incredibly fishy. If Nebraska is 3-8 and Iowa is 9-2, then why is Nebraska still favored? If it looks too good to be true, sometimes it is. Nebraska has buy-low value as a contrarian "Fade the trendy dog" favorite and an unranked favorite against a ranked opponent.

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