Friday CFB Sharp Report

clemson
 
Happy Fade the Public Friday! Today we have a loaded betting menu to choose from, including four college football games and Game 1 of the ALCS. For an updated breakdown of Friday''s betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.
 
In the meantime, let's discuss where the action is flowing for several Friday Night College Football matchups...
 
 
7 p.m. ET: Clemson at Syracuse
 
This ACC showdown is the most heavily bet early game of the night. Clemson (3-2 SU, 0-5 ATS) finds itself in unfamiliar territory, having already lost two games and no longer being ranked for the first time since 2014. Clemson beat Boston College 19-13 their last time out, failing to cover as 14.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Syracuse (3-3 SU, 5-1 ATS) has dropped two straight, although the Orangemen covered as dogs both times, falling to Florida State 33-30 as 5.5-point road dogs and falling to Wake Forest 40-37 last week as 6-point home dogs. This line opened with Clemson listed as a 14-point road favorite. Respected money seems to be leaning Syracuse plus the points as we've seen the line fall from 14 to 13.5. Syracuse has value as a conference home dog with a line move in their favor. Clemson has the better defense (allowing only 12 PPG vs 24 PPG for Syracuse) while the Orangemen have the superior offense (averaging 32 PPG vs 21 PPG for Clemson). 
 
 
10:30 p.m. ET: San Diego State at San Jose State
 
This Mountain West clash is the most lopsided game on Friday night. San Diego State (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) is undefeated and ranked 24h in the country. The Aztecs just crushed New Mexico 31-7, covering as 19.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, San Jose State (3-3 SU, 1-5 ATS) has exchanged wins and losses all year, most recently falling to Colorado State 32-14, failing to cover as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with San Diego State listed as an 8-point road favorite. Both pros and Joes are rushing to the window to lay the points with the Aztecs, which has steamed SDSU up from -8 to -9.5. If this line hits 10, expect some buyback on San Jose State as a super contrarian, inflated conference dog. The Aztecs are outscoring their opponents by an average margin of 36-17. The Spartans are being outscored on average 21-24. The total opened at a low 42.5. The public says it must go over yet the line has fallen to 41. This indicates some wiseguy money banking on a lower scoring game. 
 
 
10:30 p.m. ET: California at Oregon
 
This Pac 12 matchup is the most heavily bet game of the night. It also features two conference opponents coming off byes. California (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) has lost two straight and just got rolled by Washington State 21-6, losing outright as 7.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, Oregon (4-1 SU, 1-4 ATS) is ranked 9th in the country but just fell to Stanford 31-24, losing outright as 8.5-point road favorites. This line opened with the Ducks listed as a 14-point favorite. Some shops opened closer to -15. The public sees an easy win and cover with Oregon at home against an unranked team. However, despite this lopsided betting the line has fallen down to 13.5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on California, who is also contrarian in a heavily bet primetime game. Unranked conference dogs vs ranked opponents are 22-17 ATS (56 percent) this season. We've also seen some under money trickle in, dropping the total from 54.5 to 53.5. 
 
 
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