Happy Fade the Public Friday! We have a loaded betting menu to choose from today, including 4 College Football games and 15-MLB games. For an updated breakdown of Friday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.
In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for tonight's College Football matchups...
6:30 p.m. ET: Middle Tennessee State at Charlotte
This Conference USA showdown features a pair of teams looking to avenge losses from last week. Middle Tennessee (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) fell to UTSA 27-13, failing to cover as 11.5-point road dogs. Similarly, Charlotte (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) lost to Georgia State 20-7, failing to cover as 4.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Charlotte listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the short spread with the home team. However, despite this lopsided betting the line hasn't budged off of 3. This signals some sharp line freeze liability on Middle Tennessee plus the points. Short road dogs 4 or less are roughly 54-percent ATS over the past decade. Middle Tennessee also has value as a contrarian road conference dog in a heavily bet nationally televised game.
7 p.m. ET: Wake Forest at Virginia
These ACC rivals are trending in opposite directions. Wake Forest (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) enters undefeated, having just rolled over Florida State 35-14, easily covering as 4.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Virginia (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) is coming off a disappointing loss to North Carolina, falling 59-39 and failing to cover as 7.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Virginia listed as a 4-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know who to back. But we've seen this line fall from 4 to 3.5, signaling some respected money grabbing the points with undefeated Wake Forest. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game in this one. The total has been steamed up from 67 to 68.5. Both teams are averaging roughly 40 PPG.
8 p.m. ET: Liberty at Syracuse
This primetime matchup is the most heavily bet game of the night. Liberty (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) has won and covered all three of their games so far this season. including a 45-17 win over Old Dominion last week, covering as 27.5-point home favorites. Syracuse (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) has also been a good bet so far, covering in two of three games, most recently crushing Albany 62-24 and covering as 21.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Liberty listed as a 6-point road favorite. Pros and Joes are in unison on this one and both are laying the chalk with Liberty, which has driven the Flames up -6.5. Some shops look to be inching up to -7 as well. We've also seen some over money hit the market, pushing the total up from 52.5 to 54. Liberty beat Syracuse in the Carrier Dome 38-21 last season. Liberty is outscoring their opponents by an average margin of 38-12 this season while Syracuse is outscoring their opponents 33-17.
10 p.m. ET: UNLV at Fresno State
This late-night Mountain West clash features the biggest "David vs Goliath" spread of the night. UNLV (0-3 SU, 1-1-1 ATS) is winless on the season and just got waxed by Iowa State 48-3 last week, failing to cover as 32-point home dogs. On the flip side, Fresno State (3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS) is ranked 17th in the country and just upset UCLA 40-37 last week, winning outright as 11-point road dogs. This line opened with Fresno State listed as a 31-point home favorite. The public expects a blowout and is happily laying the big points with Fresno State. However, this line has dipped slightly to 30.5 or even 30. This signals some respected movement toward UNLV plus the points. UNLV has buy-low value as a contrarian unranked road conference dog vs a ranked opponent. Big dogs 30 or more are roughly 58-percent ATS since 2015.