Friday CFB Sharp Report: Tulane-Cincinnati, Baylor-Texas and Arkansas-Missouri

November 25, 2022 01:02 AM
longhorns

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a comprehensive breakdown of Friday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Friday's stacked College Football slate...

 

12 p.m. ET: Tulane at Cincinnati (-1, 44.5)

Tulane (9-2, ranked 19th) just crushed SMU 59-24, easily covering as 3.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Cincinnati (9-2, ranked 24th) just brushed aside Temple 23-3, covering as 17-point road favorites. This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public is laying the short spread with the Bearcats. However, despite receiving 60% of bets, Cincinnati has fallen from -3 to -1. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Tulane, with pros grabbing the points with the road dog. Tulane is receiving 40% of bets but 57% of money, a sharp "low bets, higher dollars" bet discrepancy. Both teams are giving up roughly 20 PPG on defense. The difference comes on offense, where Tulane is scoring 35 PPG compared to 32 PPG for Cincinnati. Tulane also has a two-day rest advantage, having last played on November 17th compared to the 19th for Cincinnati. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 47 to 44.5. The under is only receiving 18% of bets but 57% of money. Both teams are 6-5 to the under. 

 

12 p.m. ET: Baylor at Texas (-8.5, 55) 

Baylor (6-5) is riding a two-game losing skid and just fell to TCU 29-28 but covered as 2.5-point home dogs. On the flip side, Texas (7-4, ranked 23rd) just crushed Kansas 55-14, easily covering as 9-point road favorites. This line opened with Texas listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. The public thinks this line is too high and 64% of bets are grabbing the points with the road dog. However, this line has actually moved further to Texas -7.5 to -8.5. This indicates pro money laying the points with the Longhorns and fading the trendy dog Bears. Both teams are averaging roughly 35 PPG on offense. Texas has the better defense, allowing 21 PPG compared to 26 PPG for Baylor. Pros have leaned on the under, dropping the total from 56 to 55. Weather could play a role in this one, as the forecast calls for mid 50s with 15-20 MPH winds. This would qualify as a "windy under" system match. The under is receiving 31% of bets but 62% of money, a notable sharp under bet split. 

 

3:30 p.m. ET: Arkansas (-4, 55.5) at Missouri

Arkansas (6-5) just upset then-ranked Ole Miss 42-27, cruising as a home pick'em play. Meanwhile, Missouri (5-6) just took down New Mexico State 45-14, covering as 29-point home favorites. This line opened with Arkansas listed as a 4-point road favorite. The public is laying the points with Arkansas. However, despite 61% of bets in their favor, Arkansas hasn't budged off -4. In fact, some shops have even fallen to -3.5 and briefly touched -3 throughout the week. Reading between the lines, all liability seems to be on the side of home dog Missouri and the points. Missouri is receiving 39% of bets but 77% of money, a massive sharp bet discrepancy in their favor. Arkansas has the edge on offense, averaging 31 PPG compared to 25 for Missouri. But Missouri has the better defense, allowing 25 PPG compared to 29 for Arkansas. The under has fallen from 56.5 to 55.5. The under is receiving 58% of bets and 78% of money. Arkansas is 8-3 to the over and Missouri is 8-3 to the under. 

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