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France remains slight favorite over Belgium heading into today's semi

Jeff Fogle  
VSiN City newsletter

Semifinals start in the World Cup with France vs. Belgium. Plus, no top 10 seeds in the women’s quarterfinals at Wimbledon…and “Windy City Sam” nails two more winners on his doubleheader trend. Details ahead in VSiN City! 

World Cup Soccer: Semifinals start Tuesday with France vs. Belgium

Not much to report market-wise in the first semifinal of the 2018 World Cup, which will be played Tuesday. France is still a slight favorite over Belgium. Some money has been coming in on the favorite, which pushed France from -132 to -135 to advance offshore at Pinnacle, and from plus 150 down to 145 on the three-way at the Westgate Monday evening according to our soccer odds page at the VSiN website. 

We combed through a variety of stats that might help paint the picture of best expectations. The problem is…words take care of that simply enough.

*France is the more conservative side with the superior defense

*Belgium has the more explosive offense, but the more vulnerable defense

*Whoever falls behind has the athletes to successfully rally in a comeback effort

If you’ve been following the tournament, you knew that already. Soccer stats can get polluted because of strength of schedule issues (Belgium tends to run up stats on bad teams), or because the trailing side often accumulates misleadingly big numbers. 

France is fractionally better according to the market (0.1 to 0.2 goals on a Power Rating scale). Global respect for “defense wins championships” is basically the tie-breaker sending more money France’s way.  

Little market change for Wednesday’s England/Croatia meeting. We’ll talk more about that one tomorrow. Don’t forget to watch “Russia 2018: The Tournament Show” on VSiN Tuesday afternoon for a recap and reaction after France/Belgium is in the books.

Wimbledon: No top 10 seeds left in women's draw!

Monday it was #7 seed and popular betting longshot Karina Pliskova falling by the wayside, as none of the top 10 ladies seeds were able to reach the quarterfinals. 

Here are Monday night odds from the Betfair exchange overseas. Serena Williams is still a clear favorite despite a #25 seeding as she works her way back from a pregnancy layoff. Angelique Kerber is a solid second choice. (Click here for fresh odds as you read.)

Serena Williams: risk $1 to win $1.36, risk $1.42 to win $1 that she won’t win

Angelique Kerber: risk $1 to win $3.00, risk $3.20 to win $1 that she won’t win

Jelena Ostapenko: risk $1 to win $8.00, risk $8.40 to win $1 that she won’t win

Daria Kasatkina: risk $1 to win $15.00, risk $17 to win $1 that she won’t win

Dominika Cibulkova: risk $1 to win $16.50, risk $17 to win $1 that she won’t win

Monday’s winners are back on the court Tuesday for the quarterfinals. Here are odds Monday night from bookmaker.eu. 

Serena Williams (-460) vs. Camila Giorgi (plus 365)

Angelique Kerber (-205) vs. Daria Kasatkina (plus 175)

Jelena Ostapenko (-130) vs. Dominika Cibulkova (plus 110)

Kiki Bertens (-110) vs. Julia Georges (-110)

The market doesn’t expect Serena to be upset by that Giorgi girl. Watch VSiN programming Tuesday morning for the latest.

The men are off until Wednesday. Here are Monday night exchange odds from Betfair (click here for live numbers). 

Roger Federer: risk $1 to win $0.90, risk $0.91 to win $1 that he won’t win

Novak Djokovic: risk $1 to win $4.40, risk $4.50 to win $1 that he won’t win

Rafael Nadal: risk $1 to win $5.40, risk $5.80 to win $1 that he won’t win

Juan Martin del Potro: risk $1 to win $16.50, risk $17.50 to win $1 that he won’t win

Coverage continues through the week in your favorite sports betting newsletter.

MLB Monday: Make it 15-3 for “Windy City Sam” on his twinbill trend!

Not too long ago, we passed along an alert from VSiN’s Sam Panayotovich involving a betting trend in 2018 doubleheaders. To that point, the losers of Game 1 were 13-3 in Game 2 for a stellar 81% win rate. 

As you may have seen in Sam’s New York Post comments Monday, BOTH teams from the Big Apple were playing doubleheaders that afternoon and evening. The New York Yankees were visiting Baltimore, while the New York Mets were hosting Philadelphia.

Thank you, lousy Baltimore, for winning Game 1!

Game 1s

Baltimore (plus 210) beat the NY Yankees 5-4

NY Mets (pick-em) beat Philadelphia 4-3

Game 2s

NY Yankees (-180) beat Baltimore 10-2

Philadelphia (-160) beat the NY Mets 3-1

That’s now 15-3 this season for immediate avengers, an 83% win rate. Though tonight’s teams were favorites, many have been ugly underdogs. Thus far, a very profitable trend. Congrats to those who were following along, and to Sam for the easy winners in his New York Post debut. 

Don’t forget that VSiN is providing daily plays and tips seven days a week, plus two market-related articles per week in a new partnership with the New York Post. 

MLB Monday: Reds beat Indians to extend NL’s Interleague edge over AL

We haven’t touched on this developing story for a while. Just one Interleague game on the Monday night schedule, so we can get caught up. 

Baseball fans know that the American League has DOMINATED the National League in Interleague battles. Some years it’s horrific. Some years it’s closer. In 2018, the National League is positioned to win for the first time since 2003.

Thru Monday:

National League 92 wins

American League 79 wins

Still a long way to go. But that victory margin has been holding firm within arm’s reach of the plus 10 mark for quite a while. And, the AL Central is so bad that it’s going to be difficult for the trailers to get caught up. 

In 2018, matchups thus far have been exactly across divisions (East vs. East, etc…). Let’s break it down that way…

AL East leads NL East 35-32 

NL Central leads AL Central 43-21

AL East leads NL East 23-17

So, the American League is still getting the best of it in the East and West (where powers Boston, the New York Yankees, and Houston are located). But the senior circuit is CRUSHING the nation’s midsection.

Note that Boston, NYY, and Houston are a combined 20-10 in Interleague, which means the other dozen AL teams are 59-82. 

We usually focus on games matching winning teams. Cincinnati has been playing well for so long that we might as well include their series with Cleveland for spot coverage this week. 

Cincinnati (plus 160) 7, Cleveland 5

Total Bases Plus Walks: Cincinnati 24, Cleveland 23

Starting Pitchers: DeSclafani 7 IP, 1 ER, Clevinger 6 IP, 5 ER

Bullpen: Cincinnati 2 IP, 4 ER, Cleveland 3 IP, 2 ER

The Reds are now 16-6 their last 22. They just played a 27-inning dead heat with the Cubs at Wrigley, losing the rubber match in extra innings. One-run win, one-run loss, extra inning loss. 

Offense continues to produce, while pitching continues to be scary to invest in. Bullpen made it more interesting than it needed to be Monday.

Cleveland lost its third in a row, and is 3-7 its last 10 when not facing very soft divisional rivals. Cleveland’s advantage is so big in the AL Central, the players could get lost with Spinal Tap inside an arena for a week and still come out ahead of the pack.  

MLB Monday: Oakland continues shocking the market, now 17-4 its last 21

Have you been paying attention to the Oakland A’s? Oddsmakers have been slow to give Oakland any respect after a sluggish start. But, some of that sluggish start was due to running into the awesome Houston Astros so often in divisional play. At least for a night, the A’s got that monkey off their back. 

Oakland (plus 190) 2, Houston 0

Total Bases Plus Walks: Oakland 14, Houston 7

Starting Pitchers: Montas 6 IP, 0 ER, Cole 6 IP, 0 ER

Bullpen: Oakland 3 IP, 0 ER, Houston 3 IP, 2 ER

Typical Minute Maid pitchers duel. Both starters posted clean sheets through six innings. Oakland scored a couple off the Houston bullpen. The Astros offense could only manage five singles and two walks. 

Great result for Oakland in a travel spot, after winning Saturday and Sunday as big dogs in Cleveland. A lot of underdog payoffs in this current 17-4 run… 

Plus 110 in a 6-5 win over the LA Angels

Plus 120 in a 12-4 win at San Diego

Plus 160 in a 3-1 win over Cleveland

Plus 115 in a 7-2 win over Cleveland

Plus 225 in a 6-3 win at Cleveland

Plus 155 in a 6-0 win at Cleveland

Plus 190 in a 2-0 win at Houston

There’s virtually no chance for the A’s to rally into a playoff spot because the AL East runner-up is a lock…and Seattle’s still way ahead for the second entry. Just be aware that Oakland has been performing at a playoff level for a few weeks. Well, at least a “better than Cleveland” level. 

In a couple other Monday games.

*Pittsburgh (pick-em) beat Washington 6-3. That drops the Nationals back to the .500 mark 45-45. Three wins over Miami (35 runs scored!) made it look like that team meeting we discussed last week had taken hold. Now, two straight losses, and a 7-17 record the last 24 games. Worse news, five of the seven wins came against either Miami or Baltimore. Against teams who aren’t Miami or Baltimore, Washington is 2-12 its last 14. 

*Boston (-195) beat Texas 5-0. We only mention it to update Boston’s tear. We’ve been spending a lot of time on the Yankees lately because of the nature of their schedule. Boston’s been taking advantage of a softer slate…

7-0 its last 7

12-2 its last 14 (both losses to the Yankees)

Sox are now 63-29, enjoying a 2.5 game lead over NYY. 

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See you Wednesday. 

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