Week 2 is an overreaction week in the NFL. All of the build-up and anticipation for the season comes to a head in Week 1 and bettors formulate strong opinions about what they’ve most recently seen.
Oddsmakers and bettors will both make adjustments that are too big based on what happened with the first round of games. We only have one data point out of 17 in the books for each of these teams, but that one data point usually carries too much weight.
Here are a few games that stand out to me among the early lines for Week 2, along with a couple early picks:
New England Patriots (-3.5, 47.5) at New York Jets
The Patriots vs. Dolphins game had a heavy betting handle in Week 1, as bettors had opinions on both sides of the game. New England ultimately lost 17-16 as a 3.5-point favorite. The Patriots were one of the more polarizing teams in Week 1 because everybody wanted to see how Mac Jones would play and if New England’s defense was improved.
The Patriots may have fallen short, but they were undoubtedly the better team. New England had 5.6 yards per play to 5.0 YPP for the Dolphins. New England was 11-for-16 on third down; Miami was just 4-of-11. The Dolphins scored touchdowns on both red zone trips, but New England scored one touchdown in four red zone trips with two field goals and a turnover. It was the type of game that New England should have won.