Five Week 9 NFL games sharps have already bet

November 6, 2021 08:17 PM
appelbaum

NFL dogs continued to bark in Week 8, going 11-4 ATS to improve to 69-53 ATS (56.6 percent) on the season. Home-field advantage isn't what it used to be as road dogs have gone an impressive 44-28 ATS (61.1 percent). Conference dogs + 7 or less are 42-22 ATS (65.6 percent) while prime-time dogs are a sparkling 17-7 ATS (70.8 percent). Unders are 68-53 (56.2 percent), while nonconference Unders are 23-13 (63.9 percent).

Now we move on to Week 9. Here are a handful of games that have taken in notable sharp action …

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS AT CAROLINA PANTHERS

These nonconference opponents have identical won-lost records and are coming off big road victories. The Patriots (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) have won two straight and just took down the Chargers 27-24, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Panthers (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) just upset the Falcons 19-13, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs to snap a four-game losing streak. This line opened with New England as a short 2.5-point road favorite. Respected money has pounced on the Patriots, steaming New England up from -2.5 to -4. Nonconference road favorites are 11-6 ATS (64.7 percent) this season. One big injury to monitor here is Panthers QB Sam Darnold. He left last week's game with a concussion and is questionable for this game. If he can't go, backup P.J. Walker will get the start. We could also be looking at a lower scoring game. Respected Under money has dropped the total from 43 to 41. When the total is 45 or less, the Under is 23-13 (63.9 percent) this season. 

GREEN BAY PACKERS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

This nonconference matchup is on track to be one of the most heavily bet games of the week. The Packers (7-1 SU, 7-1 ATS) have won seven straight games and just upset the Cardinals 24-21, winning outright as 6.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Chiefs (4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS) have alternated wins and losses their last six games. Kansas City just beat the Giants 20-17 to get back to .500, although the Chiefs failed to cover as 10.5-point home favorites. This line opened with the Chiefs as a 3-point home favorite. We've seen a flood of Packers money hit the market, moving Green Bay from + 3 all the way down to a pick-'em. Green Bay enjoys a massive rest advantage. The Packers last played on Thursday night, while the Chiefs are on a short week having just played on Monday night. Kansas City is just 9-15 ATS (37.5 percent) since winning the Super Bowl two years ago.

TENNESSEE TITANS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS

This Sunday night game features nonconference teams riding four-game winning streaks. The Titans (6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS) just upset the Colts 34-31, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Rams just dismissed the Texans 38-22, although Los Angeles failed to cover as a 16.5-point road favorite. The lookahead line on this game was roughly Rams -4.5 at home. But with Titans star running back Derrick Henry likely out for the year with a foot injury, we saw this line reopen at Rams -6.5 and quickly get steamed up to -7.5. Some shops look to be inching up to -8. Nonconference favorites are 21-16 ATS (56.8 percent) this season. Los Angeles also has correlative betting value as a favorite with a high total (54). The more expected points scored, the easier it is for the favorite to cover. Newly acquired pass rusher Von Miller could also make his Rams debut in this game. The Rams are in a prime teaser spot (-7.5 to -1.5 or -8 to -2), which goes through the key numbers of 3 and 7. 

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

These nonconference foes are coming off polar opposite Week 8 performances. The Chargers (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS) have dropped two straight and just fell to the Patriots 27-24, losing outright as 3.5-point home favorites. The Eagles (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS) just crushed the Lions 44-6, easily covering as 3-point road favorites. This line opened with Los Angeles as a 3-point road favorite. The public is laying the short number with Justin Herbert, yet we've seen the Chargers fall from -3 to -1. This signals an overload of respected money grabbing the points with the Eagles at home. Short dogs + 6 or less with a line move in their favor are 58-37 ATS (61.1 percent) over the last two seasons. Jerome Boger, the lead referee, has historically favored home teams (55.2 percent ATS). 

ARIZONA CARDINALS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

This NFC West grudge match is one of the most lopsided games of the week. The Cardinals (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS) just suffered their first loss of the season, falling to the Packers 24-21 and losing outright as 6.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the 49ers (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) got back in the win column with a 33-22 victory over the Bears, covering as 4.5-point road favorites to snap a four-game losing streak. This line opened with Arizona as a 3-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the high-flying Cardinals. However, despite this lopsided support, we've seen the line fall down to a pick-'em. This signals big money backing the 49ers at home. San Francisco has buy-low value as a bad ATS team (2-5) against a good ATS team (6-2). Something to monitor here is Kyler Murray, who is questionable with an ankle injury.  

 

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