It was a mixed bag for NFL Week 7 bettors as favorites went 8-5 straight up but dogs went 7-6 ATS. Dogs improved slightly to 58-49 (54.2 percent) on the season. One big takeaway was double-digit favorites going 2-1 ATS. Casual bettors often fall into the trap of seeing a big number and saying "that's a lot of points, the dog has to cover." But that gambler's fallacy approach can be dangerous. We've actually seen double-digit favorites go 8-3 ATS (73 percent) this season. This doesn't mean lay the chalk with every big number. However, don't just blindly take the dog because "it's a lot of points." Take each game individually instead of betting based on generalities.
Now we turn our attention to Week 8. Here are five games that pros are targeting ...
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT DETROIT LIONS
This is a matchup of last-place teams desperate for a win. The Eagles (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS) have dropped two straight, most recently falling to the Raiders 33-22 and failing to cover as 1-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Lions (0-7 SU, 4-3 ATS) are the only winless team in the NFL. Detroit just lost to the Rams 28-19, although the Lions managed to cover as 16.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Philadelphia as a 3.5-point road favorite. The public sees the Eagles as the lesser of two evils and is laying the points with Philadelphia. However, we've seen this line fall from 3.5 to 3. This signals some respected money grabbing Detroit at home. Conference dogs + 7 or less are 35-20 ATS (64 percent) this season. Jalen Hurts is 2-4 ATS in his career on the road and 0-2 ATS as a favorite.