NFL favorites posted their best Sunday of the season in Week 6, going 9-3 straight up and 8-4 ATS. It was the worst Sunday of the year for most sportsbooks, with popular chalk favorites coming through for the public. Dogs still hold the edge this season with a 51-43 ATS (54.3 percent) record.
One big distinction between the performance of dogs and favorites is conference vs. nonconference play. Nonconference favorites are 17-12 ATS (58.6 percent). On the flip side, dogs are 39-26 ATS (60 percent) in conference games. This speaks to the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team while familiarity levels the playing field and benefits the team getting points.
Now we turn our attention to Week 7. Here are five games that pros are targeting.
Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns
This Thursday night clash features .500 teams looking to snap losing streaks. The Broncos (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) started the season 3-0 but have since gone 0-3, most recently falling to the Raiders 34-24, losing outright as 5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Browns (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) started the season 3-1 but have since lost two straight, including a 37-14 loss to the Cardinals last week, losing outright as 3-point home favorites. The early lookahead line on this game was Browns -6 at home. A flood of respected money has pounced on the Broncos getting points, steaming Denver down to + 3.5. Many shops are juicing up Denver + 3.5 to -120, signaling a further possible drop to the key number of 3. Road dogs off a loss are 18-11 ATS (62 percent) this season. Prime-time dogs are 12-6 ATS (67 percent). Teddy Bridgewater is 24-7 ATS (77 percent) in his career as a dog, including an incredible 19-2 ATS (91 percent) as a road dog. Another reason for the line move to Denver is the fact that the Browns are decimated by injuries. Cleveland will be missing top running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, and quarterback Baker Mayfield is questionable with a shoulder injury.