Five Week 7 NFL games sharps have already bet

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NFL favorites posted their best Sunday of the season in Week 6, going 9-3 straight up and 8-4 ATS. It was the worst Sunday of the year for most sportsbooks, with popular chalk favorites coming through for the public. Dogs still hold the edge this season with a 51-43 ATS (54.3 percent) record. 

 

One big distinction between the performance of dogs and favorites is conference vs. nonconference play. Nonconference favorites are 17-12 ATS (58.6 percent). On the flip side, dogs are 39-26 ATS (60 percent) in conference games. This speaks to the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team while familiarity levels the playing field and benefits the team getting points. 

 

Now we turn our attention to Week 7. Here are five games that pros are targeting.

 

Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns

 

This Thursday night clash features .500 teams looking to snap losing streaks. The Broncos (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) started the season 3-0 but have since gone 0-3, most recently falling to the Raiders 34-24, losing outright as 5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Browns (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) started the season 3-1 but have since lost two straight, including a 37-14 loss to the Cardinals last week, losing outright as 3-point home favorites. The early lookahead line on this game was Browns -6 at home. A flood of respected money has pounced on the Broncos getting points, steaming Denver down to + 3.5. Many shops are juicing up Denver + 3.5 to -120, signaling a further possible drop to the key number of 3. Road dogs off a loss are 18-11 ATS (62 percent) this season. Prime-time dogs are 12-6 ATS (67 percent). Teddy Bridgewater is 24-7 ATS (77 percent) in his career as a dog, including an incredible 19-2 ATS (91 percent) as a road dog. Another reason for the line move to Denver is the fact that the Browns are decimated by injuries. Cleveland will be missing top running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, and quarterback Baker Mayfield is questionable with a shoulder injury.

 

Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins

 

This nonconference matchup features two teams trending in opposite directions. The Falcons (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) have won two of their last three games and just beat the Jets 27-20 in London, covering as 3-point favorites. On the flip side, the Dolphins (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS) have lost four straight and just fell to the Jaguars 23-20 in London, losing outright as 1.5-point favorites. This line opened with Miami as a 2.5-point home favorite. Respected money has pounced on Atlanta, steaming the Falcons from +  2.5 to -2.5. This signals sharp "dog to favorite" line movement for the Falcons. Nonconference favorites are 17-12 ATS (59 percent) this season. Road teams that see the line stay the same or move in their favor are 39-26 ATS (60 percent). This is a big rest advantage for Atlanta, which was idle last week. Favorites off a bye are roughly 58 percent ATS over the last decade, with road favorites roughly 66 percent ATS. Both teams are giving up roughly 30 points per game defensively. The difference comes on offense, where the Falcons are averaging 21 points per game and the Dolphins just 16.5.

 

Carolina Panthers at New York Giants

 

Both of these NFC foes are looking to snap losing streaks. The Panthers (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) have dropped three straight and just fell to the Vikings 34-28, failing to cover as 2.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Giants (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS) have lost two straight and just got waxed by the Rams 38-11, failing to cover as 7.5-point home dogs. This line opened with Carolina as a 3-point road favorite. The public is happy to fade the Giants and lay the points with the Panthers, who have a better won-lost record. However, despite this lopsided betting toward Carolina, the line has remained frozen at -3. In fact, most shops are juicing up the Giants + 3 to -115 and some are even falling to 2.5. This signals a sharp line freeze and reverse-line movement on the Giants getting the key number of 3. Dogs off a 20-point blowout loss or more are roughly 55 percent ATS over the past decade. Conference dogs are 39-26 ATS (60 percent).

 

Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals

 

This nonconference matchups feels a lot like David vs. Goliath. The Texans (1-5 SU, 3-3 ATS) have lost five straight and are tied for the second-worst record in the NFL. Houston just got rolled by the Colts 31-3, failing to cover as 11.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Cardinals (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS) have the best record in the league and are the only remaining undefeated team. Arizona just brushed aside the Browns 37-14 last week, easily winning outright as a 3-point road dog. This line opened with Arizona as a 17-point home favorite. Some shops opened closer to -14.5. Regardless of the opener, pros aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're laying the big points expecting a blowout win and cover by the red-hot Cardinals, steaming Arizona up to -18.5. Nonconference favorites are 17-12 ATS (59 percent) this season. Houston also fits a classic wise-guy edge of fading a rookie coach and rookie quarterback on the road. Houston is averaging 15.3 points on offense and giving up 28.7 on defense. Arizona is averaging 32.3 points on offense and giving up only 18.2 on defense. 

 

Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers

 

This Sunday night matchup features sub-.500 teams looking to get back in the playoff conversation. The Colts (2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS) have won two of their last three games and just demolished Houston 31-3, easily covering as 11.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the 49ers (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS) have lost three straight games, most recently falling to the Cardinals 17-10 and failing to cover as 6-point road dogs. This line opened with San Francisco as a 5-point home favorite. Wise guys have taken the points with road dog Indianapolis, dropping the line from 5 to 3.5. The Colts match several profitable betting systems this season. Road teams that see the line stay the same or move in their favor are 39-26 ATS (60 percent). Short road dogs + 6 or less are 25-9 ATS (74 percent) this season. Prime-time dogs are 12-6 ATS (67 percent). 

 

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