After underdogs dominated the first four weeks of the NFL season, favorites clawed back with their first winning slate in Week 5, going 9-7 ATS. Dogs still lead with a 45-35 ATS (56 percent) record this season. One big distinction with dogs is home versus road. Road dogs have been the stronger edge, going 30-19 ATS (61 percent), while home dogs are just 14-15 ATS. Also, short road dogs + 3 or less are 22-8 ATS (73 percent) while really short dogs + 3 or less are 11-3 ATS (79 percent).
Now we turn our attention to Week 6. Here are five games that pros are targeting.
MIAMI DOLPHINS AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
For the second week in a row, NFL Sunday kicks off in London, this time featuring teams with a combined record of 1-9. The Dolphins (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) have dropped four straight after beating the Patriots 17-16 in the season opener. Miami just got waxed by the Bucs 45-17, failing to cover as an 11-point road dog. Meanwhile, the Jaguars (0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS) are one of only two winless teams in the NFL, along with the Lions. Jacksonville just fell to Tennessee 37-19, failing to cover as a 4.5-point home dog. This line opened with Miami as a 3-point road favorite. Wise guys have been happy to fade the hapless Jags, driving the Dolphins up from -3 to -3.5. London favorites are 1-0 ATS this season and 16-10 ATS (62 percent) since 2007. Also, teams off a blowout loss of 20 points or more (like the Dolphins) are 9-2 ATS this season and roughly 55 percent ATS over the past decade. Sharps have also hit the Over, driving the total up from 44.5 to 45.5. London Overs are 13-8 (62 percent) since 2012. Tua Tagovailoa may make his return from injury here, hence the move to the Dolphins and the Over.