The first month of the NFL season is in the books and thus far we've seen dogs post a winning record all four weeks, going 38-26 ATS (59 percent). The best spot for dogs has been targeting short road dogs + 6 or less (19-6 ATS, 76 percent). Road dogs in general have been a smart bet, going 25-15 ATS (59 percent). In terms of totals, Unders have had the edge, posting a 37-27 (58 percent) record. If the total is 45 or lower, the Under is 15-5 (75 percent). If the total stays the same or falls, the Under is 23-16 (59 percent). Divisional Unders are 10-6 (62 percent). Another interesting takeaway: rookie quarterbacks started an awful 1-10 ATS through the first three weeks but rebounded to go 4-0 ATS in Week 4, with covers by Trevor Lawrence, Mac Jones, Justin Fields and Zach Wilson.
Now we turn our attention to Week 5. Here are five games that pros are targeting …
NEW YORK JETS VS. ATLANTA FALCONS
Don't sleep in too late Sunday or you'll miss this 9:30 a.m. ET kick in London. The Jets (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) just won their first game of the year last week, upsetting the Titans 27-24 as 5.5-point home dogs. On the flip side, the Falcons (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) fell 34-30 to Washington at home, failing to cover as 2-point home dogs. This line opened with Atlanta listed as either a 3.5-point or 4-point neutral-site favorite. Respected money has jumped on the Jets getting points, dropping this line to the key number of 3. Short dogs + 6 or less with a line move in their favor are 10-6 ATS this season and 53-33 ATS (62 percent) over the past two seasons. Pros have also hit this Over, driving the total from 44 to 46. The Falcons are giving up 32 points per game, the most in the NFL. London games are 12-8 (60 percent) to the Over since 2012.