The first month of the NFL season is in the books and thus far we've seen dogs post a winning record all four weeks, going 38-26 ATS (59 percent). The best spot for dogs has been targeting short road dogs + 6 or less (19-6 ATS, 76 percent). Road dogs in general have been a smart bet, going 25-15 ATS (59 percent). In terms of totals, Unders have had the edge, posting a 37-27 (58 percent) record. If the total is 45 or lower, the Under is 15-5 (75 percent). If the total stays the same or falls, the Under is 23-16 (59 percent). Divisional Unders are 10-6 (62 percent). Another interesting takeaway: rookie quarterbacks started an awful 1-10 ATS through the first three weeks but rebounded to go 4-0 ATS in Week 4, with covers by Trevor Lawrence, Mac Jones, Justin Fields and Zach Wilson.
Now we turn our attention to Week 5. Here are five games that pros are targeting …
NEW YORK JETS VS. ATLANTA FALCONS
Don't sleep in too late Sunday or you'll miss this 9:30 a.m. ET kick in London. The Jets (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) just won their first game of the year last week, upsetting the Titans 27-24 as 5.5-point home dogs. On the flip side, the Falcons (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) fell 34-30 to Washington at home, failing to cover as 2-point home dogs. This line opened with Atlanta listed as either a 3.5-point or 4-point neutral-site favorite. Respected money has jumped on the Jets getting points, dropping this line to the key number of 3. Short dogs + 6 or less with a line move in their favor are 10-6 ATS this season and 53-33 ATS (62 percent) over the past two seasons. Pros have also hit this Over, driving the total from 44 to 46. The Falcons are giving up 32 points per game, the most in the NFL. London games are 12-8 (60 percent) to the Over since 2012.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT CAROLINA PANTHERS
Both of these teams are looking to bounce back from tough losses. The Eagles (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) have dropped three straight, including a 42-30 loss to the Chiefs last week in which they failed to cover as 7-point home dogs. Similarly, the Panthers (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) just suffered their first loss of the season, falling to the Cowboys 36-28 and failing to cover as 4.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Carolina as a 4-point home favorite. The public wants nothing to do with the Eagles and is happy to lay the points with the Panthers, who are at home laying a short number and have a far better won-lost record. However, pro money appears to be buying low on Philadelphia as we've seen the Eagles move from + 4 to + 3.5 despite being the unpopular play. The Eagles have buy-low value as a team on a losing streak. Road dogs are 25-15 ATS (62 percent) this season. Philadelphia also has value as a dog with a low total (45). Historically, low totals benefit dogs as the fewer expected points scored makes it harder for the favorite to cover. Shawn Hochuli, the lead ref, is 29-20 ATS (59 percent) to road teams historically.
GREEN BAY PACKERS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS
The Packers (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) lead the NFC North and are riding a three-game winning streak, including a 27-17 win over the Steelers last week in which they covered as 6-point home favorites. The Bengals (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) lead the AFC North and have won two in a row, beating the Jaguars 24-21 last week but failing to cover as 7.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Green Bay as a 3.5-point road favorite. The public sees an easy win and cover for Aaron Rodgers and Co. laying a short spread. However, despite this lopsided betting, we've seen the line fall from 3.5 to 3. This signals some wise-guy reverse-line movement on the Bengals plus the points at home. The Bengals are your top contrarian play of the week as they are receiving only about one-quarter of bets across the market. The Bengals also have a rest and game-plan advantage as they last played on Thursday while the Packers played Sunday.
NEW YORK GIANTS AT DALLAS COWBOYS
It’s a battle between first and worst in the NFC East. The Giants (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) just posted their first win of the season, upsetting the Saints 27-21 and winning outright as 7-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Cowboys (3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS) have ripped off three straight wins and just took down the Panthers 36-28, covering as 4.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Dallas as a 7.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the Cowboys, who are the only NFL team to cover every game this season. However, this line hasn't ticked up to Dallas. Instead, it has fallen from 7.5 to 7. This indicates some respected money grabbing the Giants, ideally with the hook (+ 7.5). New York has value as a divisional dog (56 percent ATS last two seasons) and a dog with a line move in their favor (58 percent ATS last two seasons). We've also seen some Over money show up, driving the total from 49.5 to 52.
BUFFALO BILLS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
This “Sunday Night Football” showdown is the most heavily bet game of Week 5. The Bills (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) have bounced back from a Week 1 loss to the Steelers by posting three straight wins, outscoring their opponents 118-21. Buffalo just waxed Houston 40-0, easily covering as an 18.5-point home favorite. Meanwhile, the Chiefs (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 42-30 win over the Eagles, covering as 7-point road favorites. This line opened with Kansas City as a 3-point home favorite. Sharps have pounced on the Bills getting points, dropping this line off the key number of 3 to 2.5. Short road dogs + 6 or less are 19-6 ATS (76 percent) this season. Prime-time dogs are 7-5 ATS this season and 35-24 ATS (59 percent) over the past two years. Josh Allen is 14-8 ATS (64 percent) as a dog in his NFL career. The Bills are + 90 in point differential. The Chiefs are + 9. This is also a revenge game for the Bills, who fell to the Chiefs 38-24 in last year's AFC championship game.