The first three weeks of the NFL season are in the books. Two of the biggest takeaways have been the profitable performance of underdogs and Unders. Dogs are 30-18 ATS (63 percent) to start the season. The best spot to back dogs has been if they’re short road dogs + 6 or less. These teams are 14-3 ATS (82 percent). Another interesting spot is buying low on dogs that are playing their second consecutive road game. These buy-low dogs are 7-0 ATS. Meanwhile, Unders are 28-20 (58 percent) to start the season. Low-total Unders of 45 or less are the top spot, going 12-2 so far (86 percent). Another notable takeaway: Betting against rookies quarterbacks has been extremely profitable, going 10-1 ATS.
Now we turn our attention to Week 4. Here are five games that pros are targeting.
Washington Football Team at Atlanta Falcons
These NFC opponents are 1-2 to start the season. Washington (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS) got crushed by the Bills 43-21 last week, failing to cover as a 7-point road dog. On the flip side, the Falcons (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) just secured their first win of the season, beating the Giants 17-14 and winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Atlanta listed as a short 1-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know whom to back. But Washington has flipped from + 1 to -1.5, signaling sharp dog-to-favorite line movement in its favor. Washington has value as a buy-low 0-3 ATS team on which the public is souring. Road favorites off a loss against teams off a win are 78-54 ATS (59 percent) over the last decade. Also, teams coming off blowout losses of 20 points or more are 5-1 ATS this season and about 54 percent ATS the last decade. Those looking to back Washington but fearful of a one-point game might be better served to play the Football Team on the moneyline (-120).