Five Week 4 NFL games sharps have already bet

appelbaum

The first three weeks of the NFL season are in the books. Two of the biggest takeaways have been the profitable performance of underdogs and Unders. Dogs are 30-18 ATS (63 percent) to start the season. The best spot to back dogs has been if they’re short road dogs + 6 or less. These teams are 14-3 ATS (82 percent). Another interesting spot is buying low on dogs that are playing their second consecutive road game. These buy-low dogs are 7-0 ATS. Meanwhile, Unders are 28-20 (58 percent) to start the season. Low-total Unders of 45 or less are the top spot, going 12-2 so far (86 percent). Another notable takeaway: Betting against rookies quarterbacks has been extremely profitable, going 10-1 ATS. 

 

Now we turn our attention to Week 4. Here are five games that pros are targeting.

 

 

Washington Football Team at Atlanta Falcons

 

These NFC opponents are 1-2 to start the season. Washington (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS) got crushed by the Bills 43-21 last week, failing to cover as a 7-point road dog. On the flip side, the Falcons (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) just secured their first win of the season, beating the Giants 17-14 and winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Atlanta listed as a short 1-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know whom to back. But Washington has flipped from + 1 to -1.5, signaling sharp dog-to-favorite line movement in its favor. Washington has value as a buy-low 0-3 ATS team on which the public is souring. Road favorites off a loss against teams off a win are 78-54 ATS (59 percent) over the last decade. Also, teams coming off blowout losses of 20 points or more are 5-1 ATS this season and about 54 percent ATS the last decade. Those looking to back Washington but fearful of a one-point game might be better served to play the Football Team on the moneyline (-120). 

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