We've hit on several betting themes each week of the NFL season. Week 1 was about dogs (12-4 ATS). Week 2 was "overreaction week," where we looked to buy low on teams that looked bad in their opener and sell high on teams that looked good (Vikings covering + 4 against the Cardinals and Colts covering + 4 against the Rams both fit the bill). Now in Week 3 we look to buy low on winless teams. Simply put, public perceptions have already hardened and if you're 0-2, the public wants nothing to do with you. However, dogs that start 0-2 are actually smart bets to cover in Week 3. Over the last decade, they've gone 37-21 ATS (64 percent).
Without further ado, here are five NFL Week 3 games that pros are targeting.
New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots
Both of these teams are 1-1, but public perception may be skewed based on their Week 2 performances. The Saints (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) got rolled by the Panthers 26-7, losing straight up as 3-point road favorites. On the other hand, the Patriots (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) demolished the Jets 25-6, easily covering as 6-point road favorites. This line opened with New England as a 3-point home favorite. Typically, teams are awarded roughly 3 points for home-field advantage. So the oddsmakers are telling us that these teams are evenly matched and the game would likely be a pick-'em on a neutral field. The public is all over the Pats laying a short spread at home. However, this line has remained frozen at 3. Most shops are also juicing up the Saints + 3 to -115, signaling New Orleans liability and a possible fall to 2.5. Short road dogs + 6 or less are 9-1 ATS this season and 114-71 ATS (62 percent) since 2019. Sharps have also hit the Under, dropping the total from 43 to 42. Both teams are 2-0 to the Under this year.