NFL Week 1 was all about going contrarian and buying low on underdogs. True to form, dogs went a sparkling 12-4 ATS, including nine outright victories. Now it’s on to Week 2, which is commonly referred to as Overreaction Week. The public will be placing bets largely based on how teams performed in Week 1. If a team looked great, the public will happily tail it this week. If it lost or failed to cover, the public will consider it an auto-fade. But this recency bias can be dangerous, and value-minded bettors will look to capitalize on teams being undervalued. Simply put, wise guys will look to take advantage of market inefficiencies by buying low on teams that struggled last week and selling high on teams that impressed.
Here are five NFL Week 2 games that pros are targeting.
New York Giants (0-1) at Washington Football Team (0-1)
This “Thursday Night Football” matchup features division rivals looking to bounce back from disappointing losses. The Giants got manhandled by the Broncos 27-13, failing to cover as 3-point home dogs. Similarly, Washington fell to the Chargers 20-16 at home, losing outright as a 2-point home favorite. This line opened with Washington listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. With Ryan Fitzpatrick injured and Taylor Heinicke starting in his place, a combination of an injury adjustment along with pro money favoring the Giants dropped the line from 4.5 to 3.5. Some shops are even down to 3. The Giants have value as divisional dogs in a prime-time game and dogs with a low total (41). Low totals benefit dogs, as fewer expected points scored makes it harder for favorites to cover. When two winless teams face off, the road dog is about 65% ATS over the last decade. Also, the lead ref, Scott Novak, has historically favored road teams (40-27 ATS, 59.7%).