Five Week 17 games wiseguys like

December 28, 2021 10:24 PM
appelbaum

Public bettors turned a profit in Week 16, with chalk favorites going 10-4 SU and 8-5 ATS (two games closed at pick-'em). Overs also went 9-7. We are seeing huge line moves based on COVID-19 news. As a result, bettors would be wise to wait until as close to Sunday as possible so they don't lock themselves into a line that shoots up the other way. For example, imagine if you bet the Saints -3 against the Dolphins early in the week, only to see COVID flip the line to Dolphins -3.

With that in mind, here are five games wise guys are targeting in Week 17.

MIAMI DOLPHINS AT TENNESSEE TITANS (-3.5, 41)

The Dolphins (8-7 SU, 8-6-1 ATS) are red hot and have won seven straight, most recently beating the Saints 20-3 on Monday night and easily covering as 3-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Titans (10-5 SU, 9-6 ATS) have won two of their last three and just upset the 49ers 20-17, winning outright as 3.5-point home dogs. This line opened with Tennessee as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public is split, yet we've seen this line dip to 3 at some shops before ticking back up to 3.5. This signals some liability on Miami plus the hook (+ 3.5). Road dogs + 7 or less are 63-29 ATS (68 percent) this season. Miami also has value as a dog in a total game (41). Shawn Smith, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (35-22 ATS, 61 percent).

DENVER BRONCOS AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-5.5, 45)

The Broncos (7-8 SU, 7-8 ATS) have lost two straight and just fell to the Raiders 17-13 as a pick-'em. Similarly, the Chargers (8-7 SU, 7-8 ATS) have also dropped two straight and just suffered an embarrassing 41-29 defeat to the Texans, losing outright as 13.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Los Angeles as a 6-point home favorite. The public is loading up on the Chargers expecting a "get right" performance after a bad loss. However, this line has dropped from 6 to 5.5, signaling some wise-guy money grabbing the points with Denver. Road divisional dogs are 26-20 ATS (57 percent) this season. Short road dogs + 6 or less are 49-26 ATS (65 percent). Craig Wrolstad, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (68-50 ATS, 58 percent). Denver could be worth a look in a teaser (+ 5.5 to + 11.5), which goes through the key numbers of 7 and 10.

HOUSTON TEXANS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-12.5, 44)

The Texans (4-11 SU, 7-8 ATS) have won two straight games and just shocked the Chargers 41-29, winning outright as 13.5-point home dogs. Conversely, the 49ers (8-7 SU, 7-8 ATS) just fell to the Titans 20-17, losing outright as 3.5-point road favorites. This line opened with San Francisco as a 15-point home favorite. Respected money has pounced on Houston. dropping the line from 15 to 12.5. This move was due in large part to Jimmy Garoppolo's thumb injury. If Garoppolo can't play, rookie Trey Lance will get the start. Houston has value as a double-digit dog in a low total game (44). Road dogs are 79-60 ATS (57 percent) this season.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-5.5, 49) AT CINCINNATI BENGALS

The Chiefs (11-4 SU, 8-7 ATS) have won eight games in a row and just demolished the Steelers 36-10, easily covering as 10-point home favorites. The Bengals (9-6 SU, 8-7 ATS) have won two straight and just crushed the Ravens 41-21, easily covering as 7.5-point home favorites. This line opened with the Chiefs as a 4-point road favorite. Big money has laid the points with Mahomes, steaming Kansas City up from -4 to -5.5. Cincinnati offers value as a buy-low home dog with an inflated line. John Hussey, the lead ref, has historically favored home teams (59-48 ATS, 55 percent). Cincinnati is also in a teaser spot (+ 5.5 to + 11.5), which passes through multiple key numbers. We could also be in for a higher scoring game, as the total has ticked up from 47 to 49.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (-6.5, 47.5)

The Vikings (7-8 SU, 8-7 ATS) just fell to the Rams 30-23, failing to cover as 3.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Packers (12-3 SU, 11-4 ATS) have the best record in the NFL and just edged the Browns 24-22, although Green Bay failed to cover as 7.5-point home favorites. This line opened with the Packers listed as a 7-point home favorite. The public is hammering Aaron Rodgers in a prime-time home spot, yet we've seen the line tick down from 7 to 6.5 at some shops. This indicates some respected money buying low on Minnesota plus the points. Road dogs are 79-60 ATS (57 percent) this season. Mike Zimmer is 5-2 ATS off a loss this season and 35-17 ATS (67 percent) off a loss with the Vikings. Clay Martin, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (36-21 ATS, 63 percent). Green Bay will likely be a popular teaser play (-6.5 to -0.5).

 

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