NFL underdogs continued to grind out a profit in Week 12, going 8-7 ATS. Dogs are now 101-77 ATS (57 percent) on the season. A $100 bettor taking every dog would be up roughly $1,700 at this point. Road dogs have been particularly profitable, going 64-40 ATS (62 percent). If they're + 7 or less, road dogs improve to 53-22 ATS (71 percent). Unders also eked out a profit in Week 12, going 8-7 to improve to 102-77 (57 percent) overall. Nonconference Unders are a sparkling 38-20 (66 percent) and windy Unders 10 mph or more are 35-20 (64 percent).
Now, let's discuss five NFL Week 13 games receiving big money from respected bettors.
DALLAS COWBOYS AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
This Thursday night matchup features two teams looking to snap losing streaks. The Cowboys (7-4 SU, 8-3 ATS) have dropped two in a row and three of their last four, most recently falling to the Raiders 36-33 on Thanksgiving as 7-point home favorites. The Saints (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS) have lost four straight and just got crushed by the Bills 31-6, failing to cover as 7-point home dogs. This line opened with Dallas as a 5.5-point road favorite. We've seen big money jump on the Saints, dropping the line from 5.5 to 4.5. The major reason for the line move is a COVID-19 situation with the Cowboys, who will be without several players and coaches, including head coach Mike McCarthy. Taysom Hill is expected to start at quarterback for New Orleans. Dogs off a 20-plus-point blowout loss are 14-9 ATS (61 percent) this season. Conference dogs + 7 or less are 57-32 ATS (64 percent). The Saints are a teaser candidate as well (+ 4.5 to + 10.5), which goes through multiple key numbers.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT ATLANTA FALCONS
This NFC South matchup features the largest spread of the week. The Bucs (8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS) have won two straight and just beat the Colts 38-31, covering as 3-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Falcons (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS) just beat the Jaguars 21-14, covering as 1.5-point road favorites. The win snapped Atlanta’s two-game losing streak. This line opened with the Bucs as a 9.5-point road favorite. Sharps have gotten down hard on the Bucs, driving Tampa Bay up from -9.5 to -11. The last two times these teams played, the Bucs won by 17 (44-27) and 23 points (48-25). Tampa Bay is averaging 32 points per game on offense compared with just 18 for Atlanta. Tampa Bay is a teaser candidate (-11 to -5), going through the key numbers of 10 and 7.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AT HOUSTON TEXANS
These AFC South rivals are looking to bounce back from tough losses. The Colts (6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS) just lost to the Bucs 38-31, failing to cover as 3-point home dogs. Similarly, the Texans (2-9 SU, 5-6 ATS) just fell to the Jets 21-14, losing outright as 3-point home favorites. This line opened with the Colts listed as a 7-point road favorite. Pros and Joes are in agreement and not outsmarting themselves on this one, steaming Indianapolis up from -7 to -9. Indianapolis crushed Houston 31-3 in Week 6. The Colts are averaging 28 points on offense compared with just 15 for the Texans. Ron Torbert, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (57 percent ATS).
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
These NFC West rivals are trending in opposite directions. The 49ers (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS) have won three straight and just took down the Vikings 34-26, covering as 4-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Seahawks (3-8 SU, 5-6 ATS) have lost three straight and are just 1-6 over their last seven games. Seattle just fell to Washington 17-15, losing outright as a 1.5-point road favorite. This line opened with the 49ers as a 2.5-point road favorite. Some early openers were closer to a pick-'em. Wise guys aren't outsmarting themselves and have laid the points with San Francisco, driving the line up to 49ers -3 and possibly -3.5 at some shops. San Francisco has a rest advantage as the Seahawks played on Monday night and are now on a short week. Respected money has hit the Under, dropping the total from 46.5 to 45.5. The Under is 9-1-1 in Seahawks games this season.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS AT BUFFALO BILLS
The top spot in the AFC East is up for grabs in this Monday night showdown. The Patriots (8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS) are riding a six-game winning streak and just crushed the Titans 36-13, easily covering as 7-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Bills (7-4 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) are 3-3 over their last six games but just beat the Saints 31-6 as 7-point road favorites. This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Respected money has poured in on New England, dropping the line from 3.5 to 3. The Patriots + 3 is also juiced up to -115, signaling a possible further drop to 2.5. Short road dogs + 3 or less are 17-10 ATS (63 percent) this season. Divisional dogs are 26-20 ATS (57 percent). We've also seen some Under money drop the total from 45 to 44. The forecast calls for high 20s in Buffalo with 15-mph winds. When the wind blows 10 mph or more, the Under is 35-20 (64 percent).