NFL favorites posted their first winning week in over a month in Week 11, eking out an 8-7 ATS showing. Underdogs still lead on the season with an impressive 93-70 ATS (57 percent) record. Road dogs (62-36 ATS, 63 percent) have been particularly profitable, with road dogs + 7 or less (51-19 ATS, 73 percent) the No. 1 dog edge overall.
Unders went 10-5 in Week 11 and are now 20-9 over the past two weeks. Unders are 94-70 (57 percent) overall. The two best Under systems? Nonconference Unders are 36-17 (68 percent) and windy Unders 10 mph or more are 35-16 (69 percent). Another angle to target is late-season divisional Unders. In Week 11 or later, this spot is roughly 57 percent the past decade. With weather getting worse and divisional opponents facing each other for the second time, this leads to more familiarity and fewer surprises on offense.
Let's discuss five Week 12 games garnering respected money.
NEW YORK JETS AT HOUSTON TEXANS
This game features two of the worst teams in the NFL, but pros have taken a position. The Jets (2-8 SU, 2-8 ATS) have lost three straight and just fell to the Dolphins 24-17, failing to cover as 4-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Texans (2-8 SU, 5-5 ATS) are coming off a shocking upset of the Titans 22-13, winning outright as 10-point road dogs. This line opened with Houston as a 3-point home favorite. The public is happy to back the Texans after its big win and fade the hapless Jets. However, we've seen this line fall from 3 to 2.5, signaling some respected money grabbing the points with New York. Road dogs off a loss are 30-19 ATS (61 percent) this season. Short road dogs + 6 or less are 38-18 ATS (68 percent). The Jets are also an ideal teaser candidate (+ 2.5 to + 8.5), going through the key numbers of 3 and 7.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
This nonconference matchup features two teams with postseason aspirations. The Bucs (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS) just dominated the Giants 30-10, easily covering as 10.5-point home favorites. The win snapped a two-game losing streak for Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, the Colts (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS) have won three straight and are 6-2 in their last eight games. Indianapolis just crushed Buffalo 41-15, winning outright as a 7-point road dog. This line opened with the Bucs as a 3-point road favorite. Respected money has pounced on the Colts as a home dog, dropping the line from 3 to 2.5. Dogs are 93-70 ATS (57 percent) this season. Dogs off a blowout win of 20+ points are 17-11 ATS (61 percent) over the past two seasons. The Colts have a rest advantage as Tampa Bay is on a short week after playing on Monday night. The Colts are in a prime teaser spot (+ 2.5 to + 8.5), which goes through the key numbers of 3 and 7.
LOS ANGELES RAMS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS
These NFC playoff contenders are looking to rebound from tough losses. The Rams (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS) have lost two straight games, most recently falling 31-10 to the 49ers, losing outright as 3.5-point road favorites. Similarly, the Packers (8-3 SU, 9-2 ATS) have lost two of their last three games and just fell to the Vikings 34-31, losing outright as 1.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Green Bay as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the short spread with Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau. However, this line has fallen from 1.5 to a pick-'em. This indicates respected money backing the Rams, who enjoy a rest advantage and are coming off a bye. Sean McVay is 14-7 ATS (67 percent) off a loss in his career. We've also seen some wise-guy money hit the Under, dropping the total from 50 to 48. The forecast calls for cold temperatures (30 degrees) and 10- to 12-mph winds. When the wind blows 10 mph or more, the Under is 35-16 (69 percent) this season.
CLEVELAND BROWNS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS
Major NFC North bragging rights are on the line in this Sunday night game. The Browns (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS) are coming off a 13-10 win over the Lions, although they failed to cover as 13.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Ravens (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS) just edged the Bears 16-13, covering as 1-point road favorites. This line opened with Baltimore as a 5-point home favorite. Respected money has sided with the road dog Browns, dropping Cleveland from + 5 to + 3.5. Road dogs are 62-36 ATS (63 percent) this season, with road dogs + 7 or less a sparkling 51-19 ATS (73 percent). Prime-time dogs are 22-11 ATS (67 percent). Sharps have also sided with the Under, dropping the total from 46.5 to 45.5. This is another "windy Under" system match, as the forecast calls for high 30s with 10- to 15-mph winds. Late-season divisional Unders are roughly 56 percent the last decade.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM
This Monday night matchup features below-.500 teams trending in opposite directions. The Seahawks (3-7 SU, 5-5 ATS) started 2-2 but have gone just 1-5 since. Seattle just fell to Arizona 23-13, losing outright as a 5.5-point home favorite. Meanwhile, Washington (4-6 SU, 3-7 ATS) has won two straight and just upset the Panthers 27-21, winning outright as a 3.5-point road dog. This line opened with Seattle as a short 1.5-point road favorite. Sharps aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're fading the Seahawks and backing the streaking team from Washington, pushing it from + 1.5 to a pick-'em. Some shops have even hopped the fence to Washington -1 or -1.5. This signals wise-guy "dog to favorite" line movement on Washington.