NFL underdogs continued their season-long hot streak in Week 9, going 10-4 ATS. Dogs are 78-57 ATS (58 percent) on the season. In yet another example of home-field advantage not being what it used to be, road dogs went 8-2 ATS in Week 9 to improve to 51-30 ATS (63 percent). Conference dogs + 7 or less are 45-23 ATS (66 percent) and short road dogs + 3 or less are 15-5 ATS (75 percent). We also saw windy Unders of 10 mph or more go 4-0 in Week 9. They are 28-14 (67 percent) on the season. This weather-based system will be important to keep in mind as we transition from fall to winter and the elements become more extreme.
Now, let's dive into five Week 10 games receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors.
CLEVELAND BROWNS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Both of these teams are in the AFC playoff hunt. The Browns (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS) have won two of their last three games and just crushed the Bengals 41-16 on Sunday, winning outright as 2-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Patriots (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS) have won three straight and just waxed the Panthers 24-6, easily covering as 3.5-point road favorites. This line opened with New England as a 3-point home favorite. Respected money has poured in on the Browns, dropping Cleveland from + 3 to + 1.5 Short road dogs + 3 or less are 15-5 ATS (75 percent) this season and conference dogs + 7 or less are 45-23 ATS (66 percent). Dogs off a blowout win of 20 points or more are 6-2 ATS this season and 17-8 ATS (68 percent) over the past two seasons. Cleveland is also in a prime teaser spot (+ 1.5 to + 7.5), which takes you through the two most important key numbers of 3 and 7.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM
Both of these teams had last week off. The Bucs (6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS) are coming off a 36-27 loss to the Saints, losing outright as 4-point road favorites, to snap a four-game winning streak. Washington (2-6 SU, 1-7 ATS) has lost four straight games, most recently falling to the Broncos 17-10 and failing to cover as a 4-point road dog. After an early look-ahead line listed the Bucs as a 7.5-point road favorite, we've seen respected money rush to the window to back Tampa Bay, driving this line up to Bucs -9.5 or even -10 at some shops. Favorites off a bye are roughly 57 percent ATS the past decade with road favorites off a bye roughly 65 percent ATS. One glaring advantage for Tampa Bay is their offensive firepower. Tom Brady and the Bucs are averaging 32.5 points per game on offense while Washington is averaging just 19.5.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
This Sunday night matchup features division rivals battling for first place in the tightly contested AFC West. The Chiefs (5-4 SU, 2-7 ATS) have won two straight and three of their last four, most recently edging the Packers 13-7 but failing to cover as 7-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Raiders (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) just fell to the Giants 23-16, losing outright as 3-point road favorites, to snap a two-game winning streak. This line opened with the Chiefs as 3-point road favorites. The public is happy to lay the points with Kansas City, yet we've seen this line fall from 3 to 2.5. This signals some sharp reverse-line movement targeting the Raiders at the key number of + 3. Conference dogs + 7 or less are 45-23 ATS (66 percent) this season. Prime-time dogs are 19-8 ATS (70 percent). The Raiders also have value as a contrarian divisional dog in a heavily bet game. The Chiefs are just 9-16 ATS (36 percent) since winning the Super Bowl.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
This nonconference matchup features teams trending in opposite directions. The Vikings (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS) have lost two straight games and just fell to the Ravens 34-31 in overtime, although Minnesota managed to cover as a 7-point road dog. Meanwhile, the Chargers (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS) just took down the Eagles 27-24, covering as 1-point road favorites. This line opened with Los Angeles as a 3-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the short number with Justin Herbert at home, yet we've seen this line move off the key number of 3 down to 2.5. This signals some sharp reverse-line movement on the Vikings plus the points. Road dogs are 51-30 ATS (63 percent) this season and short road dogs + 3 or less are 15-5 ATS (75 percent). Mike Zimmer is 3-1 ATS this season following a loss and 33-16 ATS (67 percent) in his career with Minnesota. Clay Martin, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (33-18 ATS, 65 percent).
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS
This NFC non-division matchup features one team hoping to get back in the playoff conversation and one looking to keep pace for the top seed in the conference. The Seahawks (3-5 SU, 5-3 ATS) are coming off a 31-7 win over the Jaguars, easily covering as 4-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Packers (7-2 SU, 8-1 ATS) just fell to the Chiefs 13-7 without Aaron Rodgers, although Jordan Love was able to help the Packers cover as 7-point road dogs. This line opened with Green Bay as a 5-point home favorite. We've seen this line fall from 5 to 3.5, signaling some respected money grabbing the Seahawks plus the points. One big reason for the move toward Seattle: star QB Russell Wilson was cleared to return from his finger injury. Also, Rodgers' status remains up in the air in terms of whether or not he will be cleared from COVID-19 protocols. The Seahawks have a rest advantage as they are coming off a bye while the Packers played on Sunday. Short road dogs + 6 or less are 33-14 ATS (70 percent) this season. Conference dogs + 7 or less are 56-34 ATS (62 percent). Seattle also has value as a dog off a blowout win of 20+ points. These teams are 6-2 ATS this season and 17-8 ATS (68 percent) over the past two seasons.