NFL underdogs continued their season-long hot streak in Week 9, going 10-4 ATS. Dogs are 78-57 ATS (58 percent) on the season. In yet another example of home-field advantage not being what it used to be, road dogs went 8-2 ATS in Week 9 to improve to 51-30 ATS (63 percent). Conference dogs + 7 or less are 45-23 ATS (66 percent) and short road dogs + 3 or less are 15-5 ATS (75 percent). We also saw windy Unders of 10 mph or more go 4-0 in Week 9. They are 28-14 (67 percent) on the season. This weather-based system will be important to keep in mind as we transition from fall to winter and the elements become more extreme.
Now, let's dive into five Week 10 games receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors.
CLEVELAND BROWNS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Both of these teams are in the AFC playoff hunt. The Browns (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS) have won two of their last three games and just crushed the Bengals 41-16 on Sunday, winning outright as 2-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Patriots (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS) have won three straight and just waxed the Panthers 24-6, easily covering as 3.5-point road favorites. This line opened with New England as a 3-point home favorite. Respected money has poured in on the Browns, dropping Cleveland from + 3 to + 1.5 Short road dogs + 3 or less are 15-5 ATS (75 percent) this season and conference dogs + 7 or less are 45-23 ATS (66 percent). Dogs off a blowout win of 20 points or more are 6-2 ATS this season and 17-8 ATS (68 percent) over the past two seasons. Cleveland is also in a prime teaser spot (+ 1.5 to + 7.5), which takes you through the two most important key numbers of 3 and 7.