Through the first eight weeks of the NFL regular season, we've seen underdogs and unders produce a consistent profit for bettors. Dogs are 70-52 ATS (57%). Dogs who failed to cover the previous week are 28-18 ATS (61%) and "sweet spot" dogs +3.5 or more are a sparkling 47-26 ATS (64%). Meanwhile, unders are 72-51 (59%). Divisional unders are 28-12 (70%) and windy unders 10 MPH or more 21-8 (72%).
With these trends in mind, let's examine five NFL Week 9 games receiving sharp action from respected bettors...
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-2, 50.5)
The Seahawks (5-3) have won three straight games and just beat the Giants 27-13, covering as 3-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Cardinals (3-5) have lost three of their last four games and just fell to the Vikings 34-26, failing to cover as 4-point road dogs. This line opened with Arizona listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Sharps seem to think this line is too high and they've grabbed the points with Seattle, dropping the Seahawks from +3.5 to +2. Divisional dogs are 23-17 ATS (58%) this season. Dogs receiving "severe" line movement of 1.5-point or more in their favor are 12-6 ATS (67%). We could also be looking at a higher scoring game in this one. The total opened at 49 and has been steamed up to 50.5. The over is receiving 52% of bets but 64% of money, a sharp over bet discrepancy.
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-5.5, 39.5)
The Colts (3-4-1) have lost two straight games and just fell to the Commanders 17-16, losing outright in the final minute as 3-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Patriots (4-4) have won three of their last four games and just beat the Jets 22-17, covering as 3-point road favorites. This line opened with New England listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with the Patriots at home. However, despite receiving 60% of bets, New England has fallen from -6.5 to -5.5. This signals sharp money grabbing the points with the Colts, triggering line movement in their favor. Sweet spot dogs +3.5 or more are 47-26 ATS (64%). Indianapolis is receiving 40% of bets but 61% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy in their favor. We could also be looking at a lower scoring game here. The total opened at 40.5 and sharp under money has dropped the line down to 39.5. The under is receiving 46% of bets but 66% of money, a wiseguy bet split to the under. The Colts are 7-1 to the under this season.
Baltimore Ravens (-3, 48) at New Orleans Saints
The Ravens (5-3) have won three of their last four games and just took down the Bucs 27-22, winning outright as 2-point road dogs. On the other hand, the Saints (3-5) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 24-0 shutout victory over the Raiders, winning outright as 1-point home dogs. This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. The public sees an easy win and cover with Baltimore. However, despite receiving 71% of bets, we've seen the Ravens fall from -3.5 to -3. Some shops are even inching down to 2.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the home dog, with pros grabbing the points with the Saints. Dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Saints here, are 51-35 ATS (59%). Primetime dogs are 14-10 ATS (58%). Pros have also targeted the under, dropping the total from 49 to 48. Primetime unders are 16-9 (64%) and unders that fall at least a half point are 39-24 (62%). The under is receiving 48% of bets but 60% of money, a sharp under bet discrepancy.
Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 49.5) at Atlanta Falcons
The Chargers (4-3) just saw their three-game winning streak come to an end with a 37-23 loss to the Seahawks their last time out, losing outright as 4.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Falcons (4-4) have won four of their last six games and just edged the Panthers 37-34 in overtime but failed to cover as 4-point home favorites. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 3-point road favorite. The Chargers -3 is juiced to -115 or -120 across the market, signaling Chargers liability and a possible rise up to -3.5. Los Angeles is receiving 67% of bets but 91% of money, indicating both public and sharp wiseguy support. The Chargers are well-rested and coming off a bye. Favorites off a bye are roughly 57% ATS over the past decade, including road favorites off a bye roughly 65% ATS. Pros have also hit the over, raising the total from 47.5 to 49.5. The over is receiving 54% of bets but 91% of money, a massive sharp over bet discrepancy.
Green Bay Packers (-3.5, 50) at Detroit Lions
The Packers (3-5) have lost four straight games and just lost to the Bills 27-17 but covered as 10.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Lions (1-6) have lost five straight games and just came up short against Miami 31-27, failing to cover as 3.5-point home dogs. This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. We've seen this line briefly dip to 3 and then settle back at 3.5. The line has never reached 4 or more. Reading between the lines, this signals liability on the home dog Lions plus the points. Detroit has value as a divisional dog (57% ATS this season), a dog who missed the playoffs the previous season (59%) and a sweet spot dog +3.5 or more (64% ATS). The Lions are receiving 49% of bets but 71% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy in their favor. The total has ticked up slightly from 49 to 50. The Lions are 5-2 to the over this season. The over is getting 42% of bets but 54% of money, a +12% sharp over discrepancy.