Entering Week 6 of the NFL season, the biggest betting storyline has been the consistently profitable performance of underdogs and unders. Dogs went 10-6 ATS in Week 5 to run their record to 48-31 ATS (61%) overall. Dogs who missed the playoffs last year are 34-19 ATS (64%). Dogs who didn't cover the previous week are 17-9 ATS (65%). Dogs off a loss of 10 points are 8-3 ATS (73%). Big dogs +7 or more are 11-4 ATS (73%).
Meanwhile, unders went 9-6 in Week 5 to improve to 47-33 (59%) overall. Windy unders 10 MPH or more are 13-7 (65%). Divisional unders are 20-8 (71%). Primetime unders are 11-5 (69%).
With these trends in mind, let's examine five NFL Week 6 games receiving sharp action from respected bettors.
New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns (-3, 42.5)
The Patriots (2-3) are coming off their best win of the year, dominating the Lions 29-0 and easily covering as 3-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Browns (2-3) just fell to the Chargers 30-28, failing to cover as 1.5-point home dogs. This line opened with Cleveland listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know whether to take the points or lay them. However, we've seen Cleveland fall from -3.5 to -3. Most shops are juicing up the Patriots +3 at -115, signaling a possible further fall down to 2.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at if the tickets are even. So this drop signals pro money grabbing the points with the Patriots. Road dogs are 28-18 ATS (61%) this season. Short road dogs 3 or less are 79-60 ATS (57%) since 2019.
Baltimore Ravens (-5, 45) at New York Giants
The Ravens (3-2) just edged the Bengals 19-17 on Sunday Night Football but failed to cover as 3-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Giants (4-1) just upset the Packers 27-22 in London, winning outright as 9-point dogs. This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 6-point road favorite. A slight majority of bets are laying the points with Lamar Jackson, however we've seen this line tumble from Ravens -6 to -5. This indicates smart money taking the points with the Giants at home. Dogs who missed the playoffs last season, like the Giants here, are 34-19 ATS (64%). Daniel Jones is 20-13 ATS (61%) in his career as a dog, including 3-0 ATS this season. Jackson is just 16-21 ATS (43%) as a favorite of -3.5 or more.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 42)
The Jaguars (2-3) have dropped two straight games and just fell to the Texans 13-6 at home, losing outright as 7-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Colts (2-2-1) have won two of their last three games and just took down the Broncos 12-9 on Thursday Night Football, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with the Colts listed as a 1-point home favorite. Sharps have laid the short chalk with Indianapolis, driving the Colts up from -1 to -2. Indianapolis is only receiving 48% of bets but 67% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy in their favor. The Colts also enjoy a rest advantage, having last played on Thursday while the Jaguars played on Sunday. The total has ticked down from 43 to 42, indicating some respected under money. The under is receiving 63% of bets but 90% of money, a sharp under discrepancy. The Colts are 5-0 to the under this season.
Arizona Cardinals (-3, 51) at Seattle Seahawks
The Cardinals (2-3) just fell to the Eagles 20-17, covering as 5.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Seahawks (2-3) are coming off a 39-32 loss to the Saints, failing to cover as 5.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Arizona listed as a short 2.5-point road favorite. The public (62% of bets) is laying the points with Kyler Murray. We've seen this line briefly rise to 3. But everytime it does, sharp Seahawks money comes in on the key number of +3. We're seeing the Seattle +3 get juiced to -120, signaling a possible fall back down to 2.5. If and when the line does fall. it will essentially reflect a sharp line freeze on Seattle. Dogs who didn't cover last week, like the Seahawks here, are 17-9 ATS (65%). Murray is just 8-13 ATS (38%) as a dog in his career. Sharps have also hit the over, steaming the total up from 47 to 51. The over is receiving 51% of bets but 79% of money, a wiseguy over bet discrepancy.
San Francisco 49ers (-5.5, 45.5) at Atlanta Falcons
The 49ers (3-2) are riding a two-game win streak and just crushed the Panthers 37-15, easily covering as 6-point road favorites. On the other hand, the Falcons (2-3) just fell to the Bucs 21-15 but covered as 10-point road dogs. This line opened with San Francisco listed as a 6.5-point road favorite. The public expects an easy win and cover with the 49ers. However, despite 74% of bets backing San Francisco, we've seen the line fall from 49ers -6.5 to -5.5. Why would oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for public bettors to cover with San Francisco when they're already hammering the 49ers to begin with? If it looks fishy, there's usually a reason behind it. The Falcons are only getting 26% of bets but 43% of money, a sharp "low bets, higher dollars" bet discrepancy for Atlanta. The Falcons are 5-0 ATS on the season. The total has risen from 43 to 44.5. The over is receiving 56% of bets but 71% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy in favor of a higher-scoring game.