Five NFL Week 4 games wiseguys are targeting

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NFL underdogs posted their best week of the season in Week 3, going 11-5 ATS. Dogs are now 29-18-1 ATS (62%) on the season. Dogs that see the line either stay the same or move in their favor are 12-5 ATS (71%). Dogs that missed the playoffs last season are a whopping 23-8 ATS (74%). Meanwhile, unders have quietly posted three straight winning weeks, running their overall record to 30-18 (62%). Primetime unders are 7-2 (78%) and divisional unders are 14-4 (78%). 

With these early season trends in mind, let's turn the page to Week 4 and examine five games receiving sharp action from respected bettors. 

 

Buffalo Bills (2-1) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1)

The Bills are coming off a 21-19 loss to the Dolphins, losing outright as 4.5-point road favorites. On the flip side, the Ravens just brushed aside the Patriots 37-26, covering as 2.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. The public expects a bounce-back spot for the Bills and currently 60% of bets are laying the points with Josh Allen and company. However, this line has fallen from 3.5 to 3, signaling pro money grabbing the points with the Ravens at home. Conference dogs 6 or less are 222-146 ATS (60%) since 2019. Lamar Jackson is 8-1 ATS in his career as a dog. John Harbaugh is 40-29 ATS (58%) in his career as a dog. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 54.5 to 52. The under is only receiving 37% of bets but 63% of money, a sharp 26% bet discrepancy. The weather could play a factor here, as the forecast calls for low 50s with 15 MPH winds and possibly rain. 

 

Los Angeles Chargers (1-2) at Houston Texans (0-2-1)

The Chargers just got blown out by the Jaguars 38-10, losing outright as 6.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Texans just fell to the Bears 23-20, pushing as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with the Chargers listed as a 7-point road favorite. The public is all over Los Angeles, with 65% of bets laying the points with the Chargers. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line fall from 7 down to 5. Some shops are even touching 4.5. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line and hand out a better number to Chargers bettors when they're already on Los Angeles to begin with? Because pro bettors have grabbed the points with the Texans, triggering sharp reverse line movement in Houston's favor. The Texans are only receiving 35% of bets but 65% of money, a 30% smart money discrepancy. We've also seen pro money hit the under, dropping the total from 46 to 44. Both teams are 2-1 to the under this season. The Chargers will be without starting OT Rashawn Slater along with star DE Joey Bosa due to injury. 

 

Cleveland Browns (2-1) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2)

The Browns are coming off a 29-17 win over the Steelers, covering as 4.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Falcons just beat the Seahawks 27-23, winning outright as 1-point road dogs. This line opened with Cleveland listed as a 3-point road favorite. Currently 58% of bets are laying the short chalk with the Browns. However, we've seen Cleveland fall from -3 to -1.5, signaling sharp action buying low on the home dog Falcons plus the points. Atlanta is receiving 42% of bets but 60% of money, indicating a +18% sharp bet discrepancy. Dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Falcons here, are 23-8 ATS (74%) this season. Pros also expect a high scoring game as the total has been steamed up from 45 to 49.5. Both teams are 3-0 to the over this season. The Browns could be without their best player, DE Myles Garrett, who was injured in a car accident earlier this week. 

 

Arizona Cardinals (1-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-2)

The Cardinals just lost to the Rams 20-12, failing to cover as 3.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Panthers just beat the Saints 22-14, winning outright as 2-point home dogs. This line opened with Arizona listed as a 3-point road favorite. Sharps have gotten down hard on Carolina, steaming the Panthers all the way to a 1.5-point home favorite. Essentially, the Panthers are receiving sharp "dog to favorite" line movement. Carolina is only receiving 29% of bets but 76% of money, a massive 47% wiseguy bet discrepancy. Both teams are averaging roughly 21 PPG on offense. The difference comes on defense, where Carolina is allowing 20 PPG compared to 29 PPG for Arizona. Sharps have also hammered the under, dropping the total from 46.5 to 43. The under is only receiving 49% of bets but 84% of money, indicating heavy wiseguy support. 

 

Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1)

Both of these Super Bowl contenders are coming off tough losses. The Chiefs fell to the Colts 20-17, losing outright as 4.5-point road favorites. Similarly, the Bucs just lost to the Packers 14-12, losing outright as 1.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 3-point road favorites. The public is happy to lay the short chalk with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. However, despite 75% of bets backing Kansas City, we've seen the Chiefs fall from -3 to -2. This signals pro money grabbing the points with Tom Brady and the Bucs at home. Primetime dogs are 64-47 ATS (58%) since 2020. Tampa Bay also has notable contrarian value receiving only 25% of bets in a heavily bet Sunday Night Football showdown. Respected money has also hit the under, dropping the total from 48.5 to 45.5. Primetime unders are 93-64 (59%) since 2019. The Bucs are 3-0 to the under this season. The Chiefs are 2-1 to the under. Keep an eye on the weather, as this game may be changed to a different location due to Hurricane Ian.  

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