Five NFL Week 3 Games Wiseguys Are Targeting

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NFL underdogs went 9-5-1 ATS in Week 2, including six outright wins. Dogs are now 18-13-1 ATS (58%) on the season. Unders also posted their second straight winning week, going 10-5-1. Unders have been the biggest storyline of the young season thus far. They are now 21-10-1 (68%) overall, with Primetime unders 6-0 and divisional unders 10-1. 

With these trends in mind, let's discuss five NFL Week 3 games receiving sharp action from respected bettors...

 

Baltimore Ravens (1-1) at New England Patriots (1-1)

The Ravens are coming off an embarrassing 42-38 collapse to the Dolphins, losing outright as 3.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Patriots just beat the Steelers 17-14, pushing as 3-point road favorites. This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is way too short and they're rushing to the book to lay the points with Lamar Jackson and Baltimore. However, despite 91% of bets backing the Ravens at DraftKings, this line hasn't budged off Baltimore -3. Normally with such lopsided betting we'd see Baltimore rise to -4 or -5 in this spot. The fact that is hasn't moved indicates a sharp line freeze on New England, with pros grabbing the points with the Patriots in their home opener. New England is only getting 9% of bets, making them by far the most contrarian play of the weekend. Dogs who made the playoffs the previous season, like New England, are 57% ATS since 2019. 

 

Cincinnati Bengals (0-2) at New York Jets (1-1)

The winless Bengals are coming off an embarrassing 20-17 loss to the Cowboys, losing outright as 7-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Jets just shocked the Browns 31-30, winning outright as 6.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a 6-point road favorite. The public won't quit Joe Burrow and the Bengals. However, despite 75% of bets laying the points with Cincinnati, we've seen the Bengals fall from -6 to -5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on New York, with pros grabbing the points with the Jets at home. Conference dogs +6 or less are 60% ATS since 2019. Jerome Boger, the lead ref, has historically favored home teams (54% ATS). Pros have also leaned over here, driving the total up from 43 to 45. The over is receiving 59% of bets but 75% of the money, indicating a sharp "over" bet discrepancy. 

 

San Francisco 49ers (1-1) at Denver Broncos (1-1) 

This Sunday Night Football showdown features a pair of non-conference teams coming off wins. The 49ers just dominated the Seahawks 27-7, easily covering as 8.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Broncos just edged the Texans 16-9, although Denver failed to cover as 10-point home favorites. This line opened with Denver listed as a 2-point home favorite. Wiseguys have pounced the 49ers, flipping San Francisco from +2 to -2. Essentially, the 49ers are receiving sharp "dog to favorite" line movement. San Francisco is -125 on the moneyline. The 49ers are receiving 75% of bets but 85% of money, indicating both Pro and Joe support. San Francisco will have an edge in the coaching department with Kyle Shanahan facing Nathaniel Hackett, who has made several critical mistakes in his first two games as Denver's bench boss. Respected money also got down on the under, dropping the total from 46 to 45. Primetime unders are 6-0 to start the season. Both teams are 2-0 to the under thus far. 

 

Los Angeles Rams (1-1) at Arizona Cardinals (1-1)

Both of these NFC West rivals bounced back with wins last week after dropping their season openers. The Rams held off the Falcons 31-27 but failed to cover as 10-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Cardinals shocked the Raiders 29-23, winning outright as 5.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 4.5-point road favorite. Currently 71% of bets are laying the chalk with the defending Super Bowl champs. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the Rams fall from -4.5 to -3.5. This indicates sharp action on Arizona, with pros grabbing the points not laying them. Arizona has value as a divisional dog (54% ATS since 2019) and a dog who made the playoffs the previous season (57% ATS since 2019). Kyler Murray is 17-8 ATS (68%) in his career as a dog. Arizona is only receiving 29% of bets but 57% of money, a signaling a sharp bet discrepancy in their favor. 

 

Green Bay Packers (1-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0)

The Packers just took care of business against the Bears, winning 27-10 on Sunday Night Football and covering as 10-point home favorites. Similarly, the Bucs just brushed off the Saints 20-10, covering as 2.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a short 3-point home favorite. Pros have jumped on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers getting points, dropping the line from 3 to 1.5. Short road dogs +3 or less are 57% ATS since 2019. Green Bay is only receiving 41% of bets but 58% of the money, a notable sharp bet split in their favor. One big factor here: the Bucs will be without star WR Mike Evans due to suspension. Sharps also expect a low scoring game, steaming the total down from 47.5 to 42. Both teams are 2-0 to the under so far this season. 

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