We're officially at the halfway point of the 2022 NFL regular season. Thus far, underdogs and unders have been a smart bet. Dogs are 77-56 ATS (58%), including "sweet spot" dogs +3.5 or more a blistering 52-28 ATS (65%). Meanwhile, unders have gone 81-55 (60%), with divisional unders 30-13 (70%) and windy unders 10 MPH or more 25-8 (76%).
With these trends in mind, let's examine five NFL Week 10 games receiving sharp action from respected bettors.
This game will kickoff at 9:30 a.m. ET on Sunday in Munich, Germany. The Seahawks (6-3) have won four-straight games and just took down the Cardinals 31-21, winning outright as 2-point road dogs. On the flip side, the Bucs (4-5) just snapped a three-game losing skid with a last minute 16-13 win over the Rams, pushing as 3-point home favorites. This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a short 1.5-point neutral site favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they're rushing to the window to grab the points with the road dog Seahawks. However, we've actually seen this line move further to Tampa Bay -1.5 to -2.5. This signals respected money fading the trendy dog Seahawks and laying the short spread with the contrarian favorite Bucs. Tampa Bay is only receiving 44% of bets 68% of dollars, a sharp bet discrepancy in their favor. The Bucs also have buy-low value as a "bad" ATS team (2-6-1) against a sell-high "good" ATS team (6-3).
The Browns (3-5) are coming off a bye. Prior to the bye, Cleveland snapped a four-game losing streak with a 32-13 win over the Bengals, winning outright as 3-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Dolphins (6-3) have won three-straight games and just beat the Bears 35-32 but did not cover as 4-point road favorites. This line opened with Miami listed as a 5.5-point home favorite. The public is laying the points with the red-hot Dolphins. However, despite receiving 76% of bets Miami has fallen from -5.5 to -3.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Browns, with pros grabbing the points with the road dog. Dogs with a "severe" line move of 2-points or more in their favor are 12-6 ATS (67%) this season. Dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Browns, are 57-39 ATS (59%). Cleveland is only receiving 24% of bets but 59% of dollars, a sharp bet discrepancy.
The Vikings (7-1) are riding a six-game winning streak and just held off the Commanders 20-17, pushing as 3-point road favorites. On the flip side, the Bills (6-2) just saw their four-game win streak come to an end with a 20-17 loss to the Jets, losing outright as 10.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Buffalo listed as high as a 9.5-point home favorite. We've seen this line tumble all the way down from Bills -9.5 to -5. This was caused by an overload of smart money grabbing Minnesota following reports that Bills star QB Josh Allen is dealing with an injury to his throwing elbow. Kirk Cousins is 34-28 ATS (55%) as a dog, including 29-21 ATS (58%) as a dog of 3-points or more. Minnesota is receiving 67% of bets but 79% of money, signaling both Pro and Joe support in their favor. The total has plummeted from 49 to 45. The forecast calls for high 40s and 15 MPH winds. Buffalo is 7-1 to the under this season.
Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders (-6, 42.5)
The Colts (3-5-1) have lost three-straight games and just got crushed by the Patriots 26-3, failing to cover as 5-point road dogs. After the game the Colts fired head coach Frank Reich. Meanwhile, the Raiders (2-6) have lost three of their last four games and just fell to the Jaguars 27-20, losing outright as 2.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Las Vegas listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Pros have laid the points with the Raiders, steaming Las Vegas up from -3.5 to -6. The Raiders are receiving 67% of bets but 83% of dollars, signaling both public and smart money laying the points. Las Vegas holds a big edge offensively, averaging 23 PPG compared to just 15 PPG for Indianapolis. The Raiders are likely to be a popular teaser play (-6 to a pick'em), which goes through the key number of 3. The total has fallen from 43 to 42.5. The Colts are 8-1 to the under this season.
The Cowboys (6-2) are coming off a bye. Dallas is riding a two-game winning streak and just crushed the Bears 49-29 before the bye, easily covering as 9.5-point home favorite. Conversely, the Packers (3-6) have lost five-straight games and just fell to the Lions 15-9, losing outright as 4-point road favorites. This line opened with Dallas listed as a 3-point road favorite. Respected money has laid the points with Dallas, steaming the Cowboys up from -3 to -5. Favorites off a bye, like Dallas, are roughly 57% ATS over the past decade. Road favorites off a bye have been even better, covering at roughly a 65% clip over the past decade. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 44 to 43. The forecast calls for chilly 35-degree weather with 10 MPH winds. The under is receiving 33% of bets but 65% of dollars, a sharp under discrepancy.