Five NFL games wise guys are targeting

November 16, 2021 09:01 PM
appelbaum

NFL underdogs continued to grind out a profit in Week 10, going 8-5 ATS overall. Dogs are now 88-62 ATS (58 percent) on the season. In yet another example of home-field advantage losing its edge, we saw road dogs go 5-3 ATS in Week 10 to improve to 56-33 ATS (63 percent) on the season. Road dogs + 7 or less are 47-17 ATS (73 percent) and prime-time dogs are 21-9 ATS (70 percent). Unders had their best showing of the season in Week 10, going 10-4 to improve to 84-65 (56 percent) overall. Nonconference Unders are 31-17 (65 percent) while windy Unders 10 mph or more are 31-15 (67 percent).

Now we turn our attention to Week 11. Here are five games receiving respected money from big bettors.

GREEN BAY PACKERS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS

These NFC North rivals are coming off impressive victories. The Packers (8-2 SU, 9-1 ATS) just shut out the Seahawks 17-0, easily covering as 3-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Vikings (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS) just upset the Chargers 27-20, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Green Bay as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window as fast as they can to lay the points with Aaron Rodgers. However, despite this lopsided betting, the line hasn't budged off 2.5. This signals some sharp line freeze action on Minnesota, with sportsbooks reluctant to move to 3 and hand out the key number to contrarian Vikings bettors. Conference dogs + 7 or less are 47-26 (64 percent) this season. Divisional dogs are 20-17 ATS (54 percent) this season and roughly 56 percent ATS the past five seasons. Minnesota is one of your top contrarian plays this week and also in a prime teaser spot (+ 2.5 to + 8.5), which takes you through the two biggest key numbers of 3 and 7. The Packers will also miss star running back Aaron Jones for this game because of injury. 

DETROIT LIONS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS

This nonconference matchup features a pair of struggling teams looking to steer their respective ships in the right direction. The Lions (0-8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS) are the only winless team in the NFL, although they managed to tie the Steelers 16-16 on Sunday, covering as 6-point road dogs. On the flip side, the Browns (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS) just got waxed by the Patriots 45-7, failing to cover as 2.5-point road dogs. The Browns are just 2-4 over their last six games after starting 3-1. This line opened with Cleveland as a 10-point home favorite. The public still wants nothing to do with the lowly Lions, yet we've seen this line stay at 10 or even dip to 9.5 briefly at some shops. This signals some liability on Detroit plus the points. Road dogs are 56-33 ATS (63 percent) this season. Road dogs that see the line stay the same or move in their favor are 30-22 ATS (58 percent). Detroit also has correlative betting value as a double-digit dog in a low-total game (44.5). 

CINCINNATI BENGALS AT LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

These AFC playoff hopefuls are both looking to snap a two-game losing streak. The Bengals (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) just got waxed by the Browns 41-16, losing outright as 2-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Raiders (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) just got crushed by the Chiefs 41-14, failing to cover as 2.5-point home dogs. This line opened at a pick-'em. Respected money has gotten down on Cincinnati, pushing the Bengals from a pick to a 1-point road favorite. The Bengals have a big rest advantage as Cincinnati is coming off a bye while Las Vegas played on Sunday night. Favorites off a bye are roughly 56 percent ATS the last decade, with road favorites roughly 64 percent ATS. The Bengals are + 33 in point differential. The Raiders are -20. 

DALLAS COWBOYS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Is this a possible Super Bowl preview? This is likely to be the most heavily bet non-prime-time game of the week. The Cowboys (7-2 SU, 8-1 ATS) got back on track last week, demolishing the Falcons 43-3 and easily covering as 7.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Chiefs (6-4 SU, 3-7 ATS) have quietly won three straight, most recently beating the Raiders 41-14 as 2.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Kansas City as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public is riding the Chiefs at home laying a short spread, yet we've seen this line remain frozen at 2.5. This signals some wise-guy action on Dallas plus the points. Short road dogs + 3 or less are 16-7 ATS (70 percent) this season. Dogs off a blowout win of 20+  points are 6-4 ATS this season and 17-10 ATS (63 percent) the past two seasons. The Cowboys are in a prime teaser spot as well (+ 2.5 to + 8.5). Dak Prescott is 15-9 ATS (63 percent) in his career as a dog.

NEW YORK GIANTS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

This “Monday Night Football” matchup features the biggest spread of the week. The Giants (3-6 SU, 5-4 ATS) have won two of their last three games and just beat the Raiders 23-16, winning outright as 3-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Bucs (6-3 SU, 3-6 ATS) have hit their roughest patch of the season thus far, dropping their last two games. Tampa Bay just fell to Washington 29-19, losing outright as a 10-point road favorite. This line opened with the Bucs as an 11.5-point home favorite. Some shops even opened higher at Tampa Bay -12.5. Regardless, we've seen sharp money grab the points with the Giants, dropping the line to 11. New York has a rest advantage as the Giants are coming off a bye while the Bucs played on Sunday. Prime-time dogs are 21-9 ATS (70 percent) this season. Road dogs are 56-33 ATS (63 percent). “Monday Night Football” double-digit dogs are 17-4 ATS (81 percent) over the past decade. 

 

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