Five NFL games wise guys are targeting

November 16, 2021 09:01 PM
appelbaum

NFL underdogs continued to grind out a profit in Week 10, going 8-5 ATS overall. Dogs are now 88-62 ATS (58 percent) on the season. In yet another example of home-field advantage losing its edge, we saw road dogs go 5-3 ATS in Week 10 to improve to 56-33 ATS (63 percent) on the season. Road dogs + 7 or less are 47-17 ATS (73 percent) and prime-time dogs are 21-9 ATS (70 percent). Unders had their best showing of the season in Week 10, going 10-4 to improve to 84-65 (56 percent) overall. Nonconference Unders are 31-17 (65 percent) while windy Unders 10 mph or more are 31-15 (67 percent).

Now we turn our attention to Week 11. Here are five games receiving respected money from big bettors.

GREEN BAY PACKERS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS

These NFC North rivals are coming off impressive victories. The Packers (8-2 SU, 9-1 ATS) just shut out the Seahawks 17-0, easily covering as 3-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Vikings (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS) just upset the Chargers 27-20, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Green Bay as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window as fast as they can to lay the points with Aaron Rodgers. However, despite this lopsided betting, the line hasn't budged off 2.5. This signals some sharp line freeze action on Minnesota, with sportsbooks reluctant to move to 3 and hand out the key number to contrarian Vikings bettors. Conference dogs + 7 or less are 47-26 (64 percent) this season. Divisional dogs are 20-17 ATS (54 percent) this season and roughly 56 percent ATS the past five seasons. Minnesota is one of your top contrarian plays this week and also in a prime teaser spot (+ 2.5 to + 8.5), which takes you through the two biggest key numbers of 3 and 7. The Packers will also miss star running back Aaron Jones for this game because of injury. 

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