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Five NFL games on wise guys' radar

December 7, 2021 08:37 PM
appelbaum

It was a mixed bag for NFL Week 13 bettors as favorites went 8-6 SU and 8-6 ATS. Dogs remain profitable for the season at 107-85-1 ATS (56 percent).

One edge to keep an eye on is Unders. The Under went 9-5 in Week 13 to improve to 111-82 (58 percent) on the season. When the total falls at least one full point, the Under is 52-35 (60 percent). Nonconference Unders are 41-21 (66 percent) and windy Unders (10+  mph) are 38-21 (64 percent). Late-season divisional Unders are 57 percent over the last decade. Since Week 11, divisional Unders are 12-4 (75 percent).

Here are a handful of games wise guys are targeting in Week 14.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-3, 42.5)

These NFC South rivals have identical records and each has struggled of late. The Falcons (5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS) are 1-3 over their last four games and lost to the Bucs 30-17 on Sunday, failing to cover as 11-point home dogs. The Panthers (5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS) are also 1-3 over their last four and fell to the Dolphins 33-10, losing outright as 1.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Carolina as a 3-point home favorite. With home teams typically receiving a couple of points, oddsmakers are telling you that the Panthers would be a slight favorite on a neutral field. All of the Falcons + 3s are juiced up to -115 or -120, signaling some Falcons liability and a possible fall to 2.5. Dogs off a loss are 33-22 ATS (60 percent) this season. Divisional dogs are 30-23 ATS (57 percent) and short dogs (+ 3 or less) are 20-10 ATS (67 percent). If the Falcons fall to 2.5, they would be an ideal teaser candidate (+ 2.5 to + 8.5), which goes through multiple key numbers.

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