Five NFL games on wise guys' radar

December 7, 2021 08:37 PM
appelbaum

It was a mixed bag for NFL Week 13 bettors as favorites went 8-6 SU and 8-6 ATS. Dogs remain profitable for the season at 107-85-1 ATS (56 percent).

One edge to keep an eye on is Unders. The Under went 9-5 in Week 13 to improve to 111-82 (58 percent) on the season. When the total falls at least one full point, the Under is 52-35 (60 percent). Nonconference Unders are 41-21 (66 percent) and windy Unders (10+  mph) are 38-21 (64 percent). Late-season divisional Unders are 57 percent over the last decade. Since Week 11, divisional Unders are 12-4 (75 percent).

Here are a handful of games wise guys are targeting in Week 14.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-3, 42.5)

These NFC South rivals have identical records and each has struggled of late. The Falcons (5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS) are 1-3 over their last four games and lost to the Bucs 30-17 on Sunday, failing to cover as 11-point home dogs. The Panthers (5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS) are also 1-3 over their last four and fell to the Dolphins 33-10, losing outright as 1.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Carolina as a 3-point home favorite. With home teams typically receiving a couple of points, oddsmakers are telling you that the Panthers would be a slight favorite on a neutral field. All of the Falcons + 3s are juiced up to -115 or -120, signaling some Falcons liability and a possible fall to 2.5. Dogs off a loss are 33-22 ATS (60 percent) this season. Divisional dogs are 30-23 ATS (57 percent) and short dogs (+ 3 or less) are 20-10 ATS (67 percent). If the Falcons fall to 2.5, they would be an ideal teaser candidate (+ 2.5 to + 8.5), which goes through multiple key numbers.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-2.5, 42)

Both of these AFC North rivals are looking to rebound from losses. They're also playing each other for the second time in three weeks. The Ravens (8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS) lost to the Steelers 20-19 on Sunday, losing outright as 4-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Browns (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS) fell to the Ravens 16-10, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs two weeks ago. This line opened with Cleveland listed as a short 1.5-point home favorite. Respected money has laid the points with the Browns, steaming Cleveland up from -1.5 to -2.5. Cleveland has a rest advantage as it is coming off a bye. Favorites off a bye are roughly 57 percent ATS over the past decade. Baltimore is riddled with injuries and just lost star CB Marlon Humphrey for the season. Wise guys have also hit the Under, dropping the total from 43 to 42.5. The forecast calls for low 40s with 15-mph winds, which qualifies as a windy Under. Divisional Unders are 12-4 (75 percent) since Week 11.

New Orleans Saints (-5.5, 43) at New York Jets

This nonconference showdown isn't the flashiest matchup of the week, but wise guys have taken note. The Saints (5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS) have lost five straight and lost to the Cowboys 27-17 on Thursday, failing to cover as 6.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Jets (3-9 SU, 3-9 ATS) have the fourth-worst record in the NFL and just fell to the Eagles 33-18, failing to cover as 5-point home dogs. This line opened with the Saints as 6.5-point road favorites. The public is leaning New Orleans as a lesser-of-two-evils play, yet we've seen this line fall from 6.5 to 5.5. Some shops are inching down to 5. This signals some sharp reverse-line movement on the Jets as home dogs. Smart money has also leaned Under, dropping the total from 44 to 43. The forecast calls for 15-mph winds. Nonconference Unders are 41-21 (66 percent) this season.

Dallas Cowboys (-4, 48) at Washington Football Team

This NFC East matchup features the two best teams in the division. The first-place Cowboys (8-4 SU, 9-3 ATS) just defeated the Saints 27-17, covering as 6.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, red-hot Washington (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS) has won four straight, including a 17-15 win over the Raiders on Sunday as 1.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Dallas as a 5-point road favorite. We’ve seen this line fall from 5 to 4, signaling some sharp money grabbing the points with Washington. Divisional dogs are 30-23 ATS (57 percent) this season. Conference dogs of + 7 or less are 63-33 ATS (66 percent). The total has ticked down slightly from 49 to 48.5. The forecast calls for rain and 10- to 15-mph winds. December divisional totals of 45 or higher have gone Under at a 56 percent clip the past decade.

Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 52.5)

This nonconference showdown was a trendy Super Bowl pick early in the season. The Bills (7-5 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) are just 3-4 over their last seven games and lost to the Patriots 14-10 on Monday as 3-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Bucs (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) have won three straight and just edged the Falcons 30-17, covering as 11-point road favorites. This line opened with Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point home favorite. We've seen this line fall from 3.5 to 3 at most shops, indicating some respected money leaning Bills plus the hook. Road dogs off a loss are 33-22 ATS (60 percent) this season. Road dogs of + 3 or less are 20-10 ATS (67 percent). Josh Allen is 15-8 ATS (65 percent) as a dog in his career. The total has dipped slightly from 53 to 52.5. Nonconference Unders are 41-21 (66 percent) this season.

 

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