The NFL regular season has come and gone. Overall, it was a profitable one for contrarian bettors as dogs finished 141-126 ATS (53%) and Unders finished 146-123 (54%). Home-field advantage isn't what it used to be, as road dogs finished 85-71 ATS (55%) and short road dogs + 6 or less finished 51-28 ATS (65%). Windy Unders 10 mph or more went 50-36 (65%).
Now the real fun begins with the playoffs. Historically, dogs have barked louder in the playoffs than in the regular season. Over the past decade, playoff dogs are 61-50 ATS (55%). Playoff dogs with a line move in their favor (think + 7 to + 6.5) have gone 28-8 ATS (78%). Playoff dogs playing a team that missed the postseason the previous year have gone 20-10 ATS (67%).
With these stats in mind, here are five Super Wild-Card Weekend games wise guys are targeting.
Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5, 49.5)
The Raiders (10-7 SU, 8-9 ATS) were once left for dead but won four straight down the stretch to sneak in as the No. 5 in the AFC. The Raiders just upset the Chargers 35-32, winning outright as 3-point home dogs. The Bengals (10-7 SU, 10-7 ATS) are the No. 4 seed and won the AFC North. Cincinnati rested its starters in Week 18, losing to the Browns 21-16 but covering as 6.5-point road dogs. This line opened with the Bengals as a 6.5-point home favorite. Respected money jumped on the Raiders plus the points, dropping the line from 6.5 to 5.5. As mentioned above, playoff dogs are 61-50 ATS (55%) over the past decade. Playoff dogs against teams who missed the playoffs the previous season are 20-10 ATS (67%). Playoff dogs with a line move in their favor are 28-8 ATS (78%). We've also seen some Over money show up, raising the total from 48.5 to 49.5. At BetMGM, the Over is receiving 89% of bets and 86% of money.